Matt Coronato
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 61?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals18 × 3+54
- proj assists39 × 1+39
- PP points31 × 0.5+15.5
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals4 × 0.25+1
- shots177 × 0.1+17.7
- PIM57 × 0.05+2.9
- ice time (min)1474 × 0.01+14.7
- total147 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242147 = 61/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 147 points is 61 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.7 SOG/game lately vs 2.6 before — chances have dried up.
- Cold window: 1.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 14.4/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for CGY.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.8
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 10.0% shooting on 40 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.1% (439 shots before this season) — that's 0.4 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.4 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.6%, worth PD −0.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Flames | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:38 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Flames | 34 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -15 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12:37 | 0 | 0 | 58 | 5.2% | 26.3% |
| 2024-25 | Flames | 77 | 24 | 23 | 47 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 17:35 | 4 | 1 | 180 | 13.3% | 42.8% |
| 2025-26 | Flames | 80 | 18 | 27 | 45 | -29 | 32 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 16:39 | 3 | 0 | 197 | 9.1% | 39.8% |
| 2026-27 | Flames | 19 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -8 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 17:33 | 1 | 1 | 40 | 10.0% | 54.1% |
| 84-G proj | Flames | 84 | 18 | 39 | 56 | — | 52 | — | 22 | — | 16:38 | — | — | 161 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 23 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Marco Rossi (2025-25) · Jack Quinn (2025-25) · Trevor Zegras (2025-25) · Patric Hornqvist (2021-21) · Leo Carlsson (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 · vs PHI | |||||
| P4 04:08 | EV | Goal | Coronato (Gridin, Nemec) → 4-3 | Coronato · Gridin Nemec | Dvorak · Tippett York Vladar (G) |
| Oct 30 · vs SEA | |||||
| P1 02:32 | PP | Assist | #? (Farabee, Coronato) → 1-0 | Farabee · Coronato · Gridin Parekh | Eberle · Beniers Larsson · Dunn Grubauer (G) |
| P2 08:43 | PP | Assist | #? (Farabee, Coronato) → 3-1 | Frost · Farabee · Coronato Parekh | Gaudreau · Meyers Montour · Evans Grubauer (G) |
| P2 10:40 | EV | Assist | #? (Backlund, Coronato) → 4-1 | Backlund · Coronato Kuznetsov · Nemec | Stephenson · Gaudreau · Samoskevich Montour · Evans Grubauer (G) · Daccord (G) |
| P3 00:39 | EV | Goal | #? (#?) → 5-2 | Backlund · Gridin Kuznetsov · Nemec | Stephenson · Gaudreau · Samoskevich Montour · Evans Daccord (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Matt over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Farabee CGY | 127 | 10 | |
| Mikael Backlund CGY | 103 | 10 | |
| Simon Nemec CGY | 65 | 10 | |
| Zach Whitecloud CGY | 61 | 10 | |
| Jacob Middleton CGY | 57 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats