Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 40?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals2 × 3+6
- proj assists34 × 1+34
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots80 × 0.1+8
- PIM44 × 0.05+2.2
- ice time (min)1526 × 0.01+15.3
- total66 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16666 = 40/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 66 points is 40 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 6.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 2.5/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for PIT.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.9
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 0.0% shooting on 18 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 4.7% (142 shots before this season) — that's 0.8 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (0.8 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 3.6%, worth PD −0.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Golden Knights | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Golden Knights | 10 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:34 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Golden Knights | 26 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:30 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Golden Knights | 40 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:04 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Golden Knights | 78 | 3 | 13 | 16 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Penguins | 19 | 0 | 10 | 10 | -1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:10 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Penguins | 84 | 2 | 34 | 37 | — | 46 | — | 0 | — | 18:31 | — | — | 89 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Ty Smith (2021-21) · Artyom Levshunov (2025-25) · Jordan Spence (2025-25) · Sean Durzi (2025-25) · Sam Rinzel (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · vs BOS | |||||
| P1 09:04 | EV | Assist | #? (Lapierre, Korczak) → 1-0 | Lapierre · Koivunen Korczak · Carlile | Lindholm · Mittelstadt · Hagens Lindholm · McAvoy DiPietro (G) |
| P2 07:57 | EV | Assist | #? (Korczak, Lizotte) → 2-3 | Dewar · Lizotte Stastney · Korczak | Lindholm · Pastrnak · Peterka Lohrei · Brunet DiPietro (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs VGK | |||||
| P3 01:09 | EV | Assist | Novak (Korczak, Stastney) → 1-1 | Crosby · Rakell · Novak Stastney · Korczak | Stone · Eichel · Howden McNabb · Theodore Hill (G) |
| P3 09:58 | EV | Assist | #? (Novak, Korczak) → 2-1 | Crosby · Novak Stastney · Korczak | Karlsson · Barbashev · Marner Hanifin · Coghlan Hill (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs UTA | |||||
| P3 10:59 | SH | Assist | Rakell (#?) → 2-2 | Rakell · Robertson Letang · Girard | Schmaltz · Keller · Guenther · Cooley Sergachev Cossa (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Kaedan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Girard PIT | 86 | 9 | |
| Blake Lizotte PIT | 61 | 10 | |
| Connor Dewar PIT | 57 | 10 | |
| Nick Robertson PIT | 53 | 10 | |
| Declan Carlile PIT | 52 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats