Nick Robertson
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 48?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals25 × 3+75
- proj assists10 × 1+10
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals9 × 0.5+4.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots150 × 0.1+15
- PIM27 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1104 × 0.01+11
- total117 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242117 = 48/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 117 points is 48 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.0 SOG/game lately vs 2.5 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for PIT.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +4.3
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 20.6% shooting on 34 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.8% (385 shots before this season) — that's 2.7 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.3 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.6%, worth PD +4.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Lizotte 0.0%, Dewar 8.7%, Korczak 0.0%, Carlile 12.0%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | Maple Leafs | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:26 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Maple Leafs | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:16 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Maple Leafs | 15 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:53 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 7.4% | 66.7% |
| 2023-24 | Maple Leafs | 56 | 14 | 13 | 27 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 11:23 | 1 | 0 | 96 | 14.6% | 27.3% |
| 2024-25 | Maple Leafs | 69 | 15 | 7 | 22 | -1 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12:00 | 3 | 0 | 112 | 13.4% | 42.9% |
| 2025-26 | Maple Leafs | 78 | 16 | 16 | 32 | -13 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12:40 | 1 | 0 | 127 | 12.6% | 48.0% |
| 2026-27 | Penguins | 19 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13:09 | 2 | 0 | 34 | 20.6% | 100.0% |
| 84-G proj | Penguins | 84 | 25 | 10 | 35 | — | 33 | — | 3 | — | 13:56 | — | — | 143 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Tyson Foerster (2025-25) · Artem Anisimov (2019-19) · Kailer Yamamoto (2025-25) · Alex Chiasson (2021-21) · Mark Jankowski (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · vs BOS | |||||
| P2 07:57 | EV | Goal | #? (Korczak, Lizotte) → 2-3 | Dewar · Lizotte Stastney · Korczak | Lindholm · Pastrnak · Peterka Lohrei · Brunet DiPietro (G) |
| Oct 22 · vs FLA | |||||
| P1 15:19 | EV | Goal | Robertson (Dewar, Letang) → 1-0 | Robertson · Dewar · Soderblom Solovyov · Letang | Tkachuk · Bennett · Tkachuk Kulikov · Balinskis Black (G) |
| P3 17:34 | EV | Goal | Robertson (Dewar, Lizotte) → 4-0 | Robertson · Dewar · Lizotte Stastney · Karlsson | Tkachuk · Bennett · Reinhart · Lundell · Tkachuk Jones |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Nick over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Lizotte PIT | 77 | 10 | |
| Connor Dewar PIT | 68 | 10 | |
| Kaedan Korczak PIT | 53 | 10 | |
| Declan Carlile PIT | 49 | 10 | |
| Erik Karlsson PIT | 42 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats