Nils Hoglander
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 38?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals16 × 3+48
- proj assists20 × 1+20
- PP points4 × 0.5+2
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots106 × 0.1+10.6
- PIM27 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)913 × 0.01+9.1
- total93 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24293 = 38/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 93 points is 38 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 6.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 2.2/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for NSH.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.4
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 16.7% shooting on 24 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.0% (517 shots before this season) — that's 1.1 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.9 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.4%, worth PD +1.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | Canucks | 56 | 13 | 14 | 27 | -4 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15:27 | 1 | 0 | 118 | 11.0% | 50.0% |
| 2021-22 | Canucks | 60 | 10 | 8 | 18 | -6 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13:05 | 0 | 0 | 132 | 7.6% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Canucks | 25 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:03 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 10.3% | 50.0% |
| 2023-24 | Canucks | 80 | 24 | 12 | 36 | 23 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:06 | 5 | 0 | 120 | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Canucks | 72 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:08 | 2 | 0 | 83 | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Canucks | 38 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:31 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 5.7% | 100.0% |
| 2026-27 | Predators | 19 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10:52 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 16.7% | 40.0% |
| 84-G proj | Predators | 84 | 16 | 20 | 36 | — | 33 | — | 2 | — | 12:32 | — | — | 119 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jonatan Berggren (2025-25) · Frank Nazar (2025-25) · Linus Karlsson (2025-25) · Matt Calvert (2019-19) · Juuso Parssinen (2024-24).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · @ ANA | |||||
| P2 16:02 | EV | Goal | Hoglander (Struble, Wright) → 2-1 | Forsberg · Hoglander · Wright Struble · Hunt | Terry · Nesterenko · Washe Helleson · LaCombe Brossoit (G) |
| P3 08:05 | EV | Assist | #? (Hoglander, Josi) → 3-1 | Forsberg · Hoglander Josi · Wilsby | Terry · Nesterenko · Washe Warren · Mitchell Brossoit (G) |
| Nov 10 · @ LAK | |||||
| P1 05:20 | EV | Assist | #? (Hoglander) → 1-0 | Hoglander · Wright Struble · Hunt | Zuccarello · Laughton · Lee Dumoulin · Ceci Forsberg (G) |
| P2 10:32 | EV | Assist | #? (Hoglander, Skjei) → 2-0 | Hoglander · Wright Skjei · Perbix | Kempe · Panarin · Laferriere Dumoulin · Ceci Forsberg (G) |
| Oct 27 · vs NYI | |||||
| P2 13:02 | EV | Assist | Kerfoot (Hoglander) → 2-3 | Kerfoot · Hoglander · Edstrom Wilsby · Josi | Duclair · Pageau · Palat Pelech · Schaefer Varlamov (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Nils over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Forsberg NSH | 83 | 10 | |
| Shane Wright NSH | 54 | 5 | |
| Jayden Struble NSH | 50 | 10 | |
| Daemon Hunt NSH | 40 | 7 | |
| Brady Skjei NSH | 37 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats