Shane Wright
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 40?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals17 × 3+51
- proj assists18 × 1+18
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots128 × 0.1+12.8
- PIM18 × 0.05+0.9
- ice time (min)1190 × 0.01+11.9
- total97 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24297 = 40/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 97 points is 40 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Availability: played 5 of 15 for NSH — missed 10 games (2026-10-25, 2026-10-27, 2026-10-29, 2026-10-31, …).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.9
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 13.8% shooting on 29 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 15.9% (204 shots before this season) — that's 0.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.2%, worth PD −0.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Kraken | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:29 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 25.0% | 32.3% |
| 2023-24 | Kraken | 8 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:32 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 33.3% | 50.6% |
| 2024-25 | Kraken | 79 | 19 | 25 | 44 | 4 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 14:04 | 2 | 0 | 91 | 20.9% | 44.5% |
| 2025-26 | Kraken | 74 | 12 | 15 | 27 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 13:48 | 2 | 1 | 97 | 12.4% | 39.7% |
| 2026-27 | Kraken | 14 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:14 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 14.3% | 50.0% |
| 2026-27 | Predators | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:01 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 12.5% | 37.7% |
| 84-G proj | Predators | 84 | 17 | 18 | 35 | — | 28 | — | 4 | — | 14:34 | — | — | 133 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 22 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: James Neal (2020-20) · Robby Fabbri (2024-24) · Arthur Kaliyev (2023-23) · Mavrik Bourque (2025-25) · Matt Calvert (2019-19).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · @ ANA | |||||
| P1 08:29 | EV | Assist | Struble (Wright) → 1-1 | Forsberg · Hoglander · Wright Struble · Hunt | Terry · Nesterenko · Washe Luneau · Mitchell Brossoit (G) |
| P2 16:02 | EV | Assist | Hoglander (Struble, Wright) → 2-1 | Forsberg · Hoglander · Wright Struble · Hunt | Terry · Nesterenko · Washe Helleson · LaCombe Brossoit (G) |
| P3 08:05 | EV | Goal | #? (Hoglander, Josi) → 3-1 | Forsberg · Hoglander Josi · Wilsby | Terry · Nesterenko · Washe Warren · Mitchell Brossoit (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Shane over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Berkly Catton SEA | 62 | 5 | |
| Kaapo Kakko SEA | 60 | 5 | |
| Filip Forsberg NSH | 56 | 5 | |
| Nils Hoglander NSH | 54 | 5 | |
| Jayden Struble NSH | 34 | 5 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats