Pavel Dorofeyev
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 57?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals20 × 3+60
- proj assists22 × 1+22
- PP points25 × 0.5+12.5
- game-winning goals8 × 0.5+4
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots252 × 0.1+25.2
- PIM8 × 0.05+0.4
- ice time (min)1421 × 0.01+14.2
- total138 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242138 = 57/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 138 points is 57 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for NYR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −5.7
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 10.0% shooting on 60 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.5% (622 shots before this season) — that's 2.7 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (8.7 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.3%, worth PD −5.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Golden Knights | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Golden Knights | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14:14 | 3 | 0 | 40 | 17.5% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Golden Knights | 47 | 13 | 11 | 24 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:17 | 1 | 0 | 97 | 13.4% | 50.0% |
| 2024-25 | Golden Knights | 82 | 35 | 17 | 52 | 2 | 30 | 13 | 17 | 0 | 16:32 | 7 | 0 | 254 | 13.8% | 18.8% |
| 2025-26 | Golden Knights | 82 | 37 | 27 | 64 | -3 | 24 | 20 | 30 | 0 | 17:36 | 4 | 0 | 230 | 16.1% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Rangers | 20 | 6 | 6 | 12 | -18 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 16:55 | 2 | 0 | 60 | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Rangers | 84 | 20 | 22 | 42 | — | 22 | — | 28 | — | 16:16 | — | — | 201 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 26 that is 0%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Egor Chinakhov (2025-25) · Pavel Dorofeyev (2025-25) · Josh Norris (2025-25) · Shane Wright (2025-25) · Owen Tippett (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · @ CGY | |||||
| P2 10:52 | PP | Assist | #? (Dorofeyev, Lafrenière) → 2-0 | Dorofeyev · Lafrenière · Perreault Fox | Backlund · Sharangovich Middleton · Whitecloud Cooley (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ SEA | |||||
| P2 12:46 | EV | Goal | #? (Zibanejad, Lafrenière) → 4-0 | Zibanejad · Lafrenière Pettersson · Schneider | Stephenson · Winterton Montour · Dunn · Mahura Grubauer (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs PHI | |||||
| P3 13:52 | PP | Goal | #? (Zibanejad, Fox) → 2-2 | Zibanejad · Lafrenière · Perreault Fox | Dvorak · Foerster Sanheim · Benoit Woll (G) |
| Oct 26 · vs LAK | |||||
| P2 13:05 | PP | Assist | Fox (Dorofeyev, Lafrenière) → 2-5 | Miller · Lafrenière · Dorofeyev · Zibanejad Fox | Armia · Haula Edmundson · Doughty Kuemper (G) |
| Oct 24 · @ OTT | |||||
| P3 15:32 | EV | Goal | Dorofeyev (Cuylle, Laba) → 4-5 | Dorofeyev · Laba · Cuylle Fox · Gavrikov | Batherson · Cozens · Foegele Matinpalo · Kleven Johansson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Pavel over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mika Zibanejad NYR | 91 | 10 | |
| J.T. Miller NYR | 78 | 10 | |
| Adam Fox NYR | 75 | 10 | |
| Alexis Lafrenière NYR | 65 | 10 | |
| Tye Kartye NYR | 58 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats