Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 62?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals21 × 3+63
- proj assists44 × 1+44
- PP points17 × 0.5+8.5
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots155 × 0.1+15.5
- PIM17 × 0.05+0.9
- ice time (min)1725 × 0.01+17.3
- total151 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242151 = 62/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 151 points is 62 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for NYR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.3
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 13.5% shooting on 37 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.0% (1916 shots before this season) — that's 0.2 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.2 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.8%, worth PD −0.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-12 | Senators | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:54 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0.0% | 44.0% |
| 2012-13 | Senators | 42 | 7 | 13 | 20 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 13:34 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 7.8% | 46.4% |
| 2013-14 | Senators | 69 | 16 | 17 | 33 | -15 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 14:20 | 0 | 0 | 153 | 10.5% | 46.1% |
| 2014-15 | Senators | 80 | 20 | 26 | 46 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 16:26 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 13.3% | 48.8% |
| 2015-16 | Senators | 81 | 21 | 30 | 51 | -2 | 18 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 17:46 | 7 | 0 | 184 | 11.4% | 50.5% |
| 2016-17 | Rangers | 56 | 14 | 23 | 37 | 9 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 17:04 | 2 | 2 | 119 | 11.8% | 52.0% |
| 2017-18 | Rangers | 72 | 27 | 20 | 47 | -23 | 14 | 14 | 21 | 0 | 17:58 | 4 | 1 | 212 | 12.7% | 50.8% |
| 2018-19 | Rangers | 82 | 30 | 44 | 74 | -12 | 47 | 11 | 23 | 2 | 20:34 | 5 | 0 | 236 | 12.7% | 49.7% |
| 2019-20 | Rangers | 57 | 41 | 34 | 75 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 27 | 3 | 21:38 | 6 | 2 | 208 | 19.7% | 49.2% |
| 2020-21 | Rangers | 56 | 24 | 26 | 50 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 14 | 2 | 20:06 | 7 | 1 | 171 | 14.0% | 46.3% |
| 2021-22 | Rangers | 81 | 29 | 52 | 81 | 30 | 12 | 15 | 28 | 1 | 19:38 | 3 | 0 | 219 | 13.2% | 52.3% |
| 2022-23 | Rangers | 82 | 39 | 52 | 91 | 25 | 20 | 20 | 39 | 1 | 19:58 | 5 | 0 | 251 | 15.5% | 49.5% |
| 2023-24 | Rangers | 81 | 26 | 46 | 72 | 15 | 30 | 12 | 31 | 2 | 19:45 | 3 | 2 | 221 | 11.8% | 49.3% |
| 2024-25 | Rangers | 82 | 20 | 42 | 62 | -22 | 22 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 18:46 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 10.9% | 52.0% |
| 2025-26 | Rangers | 81 | 34 | 44 | 78 | -20 | 14 | 16 | 35 | 2 | 20:54 | 3 | 0 | 215 | 15.8% | 52.5% |
| 2026-27 | Rangers | 20 | 5 | 13 | 18 | -2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20:32 | 1 | 0 | 37 | 13.5% | 55.8% |
| 84-G proj | Rangers | 84 | 21 | 44 | 65 | — | 27 | — | 27 | — | 18:32 | — | — | 153 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 33 that is -4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: J.T. Miller (2025-25) · Pierre-Luc Dubois (2025-25) · Jamie Benn (2025-25) · Patrick Kane (2025-25) · Travis Konecny (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · @ CGY | |||||
| P2 00:59 | EV | Goal | #? (Lafrenière, Pettersson) → 1-0 | Lafrenière · Perreault Pettersson · Schneider | Backlund · Farabee · Coronato Hanley · Nemec Cooley (G) |
| P2 10:52 | PP | Goal | #? (Dorofeyev, Lafrenière) → 2-0 | Dorofeyev · Lafrenière · Perreault Fox | Backlund · Sharangovich Middleton · Whitecloud Cooley (G) |
| Nov 9 · @ EDM | |||||
| P2 05:05 | SH | Assist | #? (Zibanejad) → 1-2 | Zibanejad Gavrikov · Fox | Hyman · Nugent-Hopkins · Draisaitl · McDavid Bouchard Levi (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ SEA | |||||
| P1 01:35 | EV | Assist | #? (Zibanejad, Lafrenière) → 1-0 | Zibanejad · Lafrenière Robertson · Morrow | Stephenson · Gaudreau · Wood Montour · Evans Daccord (G) |
| P2 12:46 | EV | Assist | #? (Zibanejad, Lafrenière) → 4-0 | Zibanejad · Lafrenière Pettersson · Schneider | Stephenson · Winterton Montour · Dunn · Mahura Grubauer (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Mika over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Lafrenière NYR | 147 | 10 | |
| Gabe Perreault NYR | 116 | 10 | |
| Adam Fox NYR | 108 | 10 | |
| Pavel Dorofeyev NYR | 91 | 10 | |
| Vladislav Gavrikov NYR | 73 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats