Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 52?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals23 × 3+69
- proj assists18 × 1+18
- PP points13 × 0.5+6.5
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots164 × 0.1+16.4
- PIM8 × 0.05+0.4
- ice time (min)1399 × 0.01+14
- total126 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242126 = 52/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 126 points is 52 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for NYR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.8
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 15.4% shooting on 39 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.2% (78 shots before this season) — that's 0.5 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.5 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 14.6%, worth PD +0.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Rangers | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:26 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Rangers | 49 | 12 | 15 | 27 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 15:59 | 3 | 0 | 73 | 16.4% | 50.0% |
| 2026-27 | Rangers | 20 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 16:39 | 1 | 0 | 39 | 15.4% | 20.0% |
| 84-G proj | Rangers | 84 | 23 | 18 | 40 | — | 22 | — | 9 | — | 16:06 | — | — | 154 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 21 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · @ SEA | |||||
| P1 01:35 | EV | Goal | #? (Zibanejad, Lafrenière) → 1-0 | Zibanejad · Lafrenière Robertson · Morrow | Stephenson · Gaudreau · Wood Montour · Evans Daccord (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs PHI | |||||
| P1 04:39 | EV | Goal | #? (Miller, Pettersson) → 1-0 | Miller · Kartye Pettersson · Schneider | Dvorak · Zegras · Michkov York · Bonk Woll (G) |
| Oct 19 · vs ANA | |||||
| P2 10:17 | EV | Goal | Perreault (Zibanejad, Lafrenière) → 3-0 | Zibanejad · Lafrenière · Perreault Pettersson · Durzi | Granlund · Sennecke · Klepov LaCombe · Warren Husso (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Gabe over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mika Zibanejad NYR | 116 | 10 | |
| Alexis Lafrenière NYR | 90 | 10 | |
| Adam Fox NYR | 78 | 10 | |
| Vladislav Gavrikov NYR | 64 | 10 | |
| Marcus Pettersson NYR | 54 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats