Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 55?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals19 × 3+57
- proj assists28 × 1+28
- PP points16 × 0.5+8
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots236 × 0.1+23.6
- PIM42 × 0.05+2.1
- ice time (min)1435 × 0.01+14.4
- total133 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242133 = 55/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 133 points is 55 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: played 14 of 17 for NJD — missed 3 games (2026-10-13, 2026-10-15, 2026-10-17).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.6
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 8.9% shooting on 45 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 10.4% (360 shots before this season) — that's 0.7 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.7 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 9.8%, worth PD −1.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Predators | 24 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16:34 | 1 | 0 | 54 | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Predators | 80 | 16 | 23 | 39 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 13:57 | 1 | 0 | 172 | 9.3% | 25.0% |
| 2024-25 | Predators | 68 | 10 | 22 | 32 | -2 | 22 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13:52 | 1 | 0 | 134 | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Predators | 81 | 12 | 44 | 56 | 1 | 28 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 16:37 | 1 | 0 | 176 | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Devils | 17 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 17:06 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 8.9% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Devils | 84 | 19 | 28 | 47 | — | 42 | — | 17 | — | 16:16 | — | — | 187 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 24 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Trevor Zegras (2025-25) · Filip Chytil (2024-24) · Kaapo Kakko (2025-25) · William Karlsson (2024-24) · Luke Evangelista (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · @ NYI | |||||
| P3 06:08 | EV | Goal | #? (Pesce, Hischier) → 3-4 | Meier · Hischier Pesce · Hughes | Palmieri · Horvat · Holmstrom Pelech · DeAngelo Sorokin (G) |
| P3 13:42 | PP | Assist | #? (Hughes, Evangelista) → 4-4 | Hischier · Hughes · Gritsyuk · Evangelista | Horvat · Holmstrom Stanley · Schaefer Sorokin (G) |
| Oct 27 · @ DAL | |||||
| P1 02:41 | EV | Assist | Hischier (Evangelista, Kovacevic) → 1-0 | Hischier · Brown · Meier · Evangelista Dillon · Kovacevic · Pesce · Hughes | Robertson · Hintz · Seguin Lundkvist · Bichsel DeSmith (G) |
| Oct 24 · vs LAK | |||||
| P3 08:08 | EV | Assist | Pesce (Evangelista, Gritsyuk) → 2-1 | Hischier · Evangelista · Gritsyuk Dillon · Pesce | Lee · Helenius · Perry Doughty · Gustafsson Forsberg (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Luke over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Timo Meier NJD | 129 | 10 | |
| Nico Hischier NJD | 127 | 10 | |
| Luke Hughes NJD | 71 | 10 | |
| Dougie Hamilton NJD | 62 | 10 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler NJD | 57 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats