Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 31?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals2 × 3+6
- proj assists19 × 1+19
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots98 × 0.1+9.8
- PIM37 × 0.05+1.9
- ice time (min)1457 × 0.01+14.6
- total51 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16651 = 31/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 51 points is 31 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for CGY.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −1.6
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 0.0% shooting on 21 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 6.4% (66 shots before this season) — that's 1.3 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.3 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 4.7%, worth PD −1.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Flames | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:58 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Flames | 57 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -8 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:05 | 1 | 0 | 64 | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Flames | 18 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:21 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Flames | 84 | 2 | 19 | 22 | — | 42 | — | 0 | — | 18:02 | — | — | 100 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 24 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 · vs PHI | |||||
| P1 15:26 | EV | Assist | #? (Kuznetsov, Sharangovich) → 1-1 | Frost · Sharangovich · Suniev Kuznetsov | Tippett · Zegras · Knuble Seeler · Benoit Vladar (G) |
| Nov 6 · vs ANA | |||||
| P1 02:23 | EV | Assist | #? (Parekh, Kuznetsov) → 1-0 | Klapka · Castagna Kuznetsov · Parekh | Colangelo · Myatovic · McQueen Warren · Mitchell Dostal (G) |
| Oct 26 · vs TOR | |||||
| P3 18:35 | EV | Assist | Farabee (Coronato, Kuznetsov) → 4-2 | Backlund · Coronato · Farabee Bahl · Parekh · Whitecloud · Kuznetsov | Matthews · Cowan · Nylander · McKenna · Roslovic Raddysh |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Yan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zayne Parekh CGY | 95 | 10 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich CGY | 50 | 10 | |
| Jonathan Castagna CGY | 48 | 10 | |
| Morgan Frost CGY | 47 | 10 | |
| Aydar Suniev CGY | 45 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats