Zachary Bolduc
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 48?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals22 × 3+66
- proj assists15 × 1+15
- PP points14 × 0.5+7
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots140 × 0.1+14
- PIM19 × 0.05+1
- ice time (min)1192 × 0.01+11.9
- total117 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242117 = 48/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 117 points is 48 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for MTL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +2.9
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 20.0% shooting on 30 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.8% (259 shots before this season) — that's 1.9 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.1 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.8%, worth PD +2.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Blues | 25 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:01 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 13.2% | 50.0% |
| 2024-25 | Blues | 72 | 19 | 17 | 36 | 20 | 37 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 12:48 | 0 | 0 | 120 | 15.8% | 35.7% |
| 2025-26 | Canadiens | 78 | 12 | 18 | 30 | -6 | 28 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 13:38 | 3 | 0 | 101 | 11.9% | 50.0% |
| 2026-27 | Canadiens | 19 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14:15 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 19.4% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Canadiens | 84 | 22 | 15 | 36 | — | 29 | — | 9 | — | 14:35 | — | — | 139 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 23 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Nick Robertson (2025-25) · Shane Wright (2025-25) · Tyson Foerster (2025-25) · Artem Anisimov (2019-19) · Michael Carcone (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ BOS | |||||
| P2 14:15 | EV | Assist | #? (Bolduc, Carrier) → 5-0 | Texier · Bolduc Carrier · Xhekaj | Eyssimont · Geekie · Minten Zadorov · Borgen DiPietro (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ TOR | |||||
| P3 12:15 | PP | Goal | #? (Hutson, Caufield) → 4-2 | Suzuki · Caufield · Slafkovský Hutson | Paul · Duhaime Tanev · McCabe Bobrovsky (G) |
| Oct 27 · @ STL | |||||
| P2 08:37 | EV | Goal | Bolduc (Matheson, Texier) → 1-0 | Newhook · Kreider · Bolduc · Texier Matheson | Thomas · Suter · Buchnevich Fowler · Carlo Binnington (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Zachary over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Texier MTL | 107 | 10 | |
| Phillip Danault MTL | 104 | 10 | |
| Lane Hutson MTL | 80 | 10 | |
| Noah Dobson MTL | 43 | 10 | |
| Kaiden Guhle MTL | 43 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats