Frank Nazar
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 51?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals23 × 3+69
- proj assists17 × 1+17
- PP points5 × 0.5+2.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots147 × 0.1+14.7
- PIM110 × 0.05+5.5
- ice time (min)1463 × 0.01+14.6
- total123 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242123 = 51/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 123 points is 51 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.7 SOG/game lately vs 1.3 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Hot window: 6.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 3.3/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: played 12 of 14 for CHI — missed 2 games (2026-10-10, 2026-10-13).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +2.4
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 17.9% shooting on 28 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.7% (231 shots before this season) — that's 1.5 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.5 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 14.3%, worth PD +2.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Blackhawks | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:09 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 50.0% | 31.8% |
| 2024-25 | Blackhawks | 53 | 12 | 14 | 26 | -11 | 24 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 15:52 | 2 | 1 | 91 | 13.2% | 44.6% |
| 2025-26 | Blackhawks | 66 | 15 | 26 | 41 | -21 | 26 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 18:19 | 3 | 1 | 138 | 10.9% | 47.4% |
| 2026-27 | Blackhawks | 17 | 7 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 17:30 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 21.2% | 42.5% |
| 84-G proj | Blackhawks | 84 | 23 | 17 | 40 | — | 80 | — | 10 | — | 16:27 | — | — | 146 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 22 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: James Neal (2020-20) · Robby Fabbri (2024-24) · Ryan Leonard (2025-25) · Artem Anisimov (2019-19) · Alex Chiasson (2021-21).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs BUF | |||||
| P1 12:22 | PP | Goal | #? (Bedard, Kantserov) → 1-1 | Kane · Bedard · Kantserov Rinzel | McLeod · Benson Timmins · Samuelsson Lyon (G) |
| P3 08:22 | EV | Goal | #? (Rinzel, Moore) → 2-2 | Kane · Moore Cole · Rinzel | Zucker · Quinn · Ostlund Crevier · Zellweger Lyon (G) |
| Nov 4 · @ FLA | |||||
| P3 09:31 | SH | Goal | #? (Smith, Mastro) → 2-3 | Smith Cole · Mastro | Verhaeghe · Reinhart · Tkachuk Jones · Balinskis Markstrom (G) |
| P3 16:09 | EV | Goal | #? (Rinzel, Bedard) → 3-4 | Bedard · Kantserov · Frondell Rinzel | Verhaeghe · Bennett · Vilmanis Jones · Forsling Markstrom (G) |
| Oct 27 · vs LAK | |||||
| P3 07:17 | EV | Assist | Kaiser (Nazar, Kane) → 2-1 | Moore · Kane · Nazar Kaiser · Levshunov | Kempe · Panarin · Byfield Ceci · Gustafsson Forsberg (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Frank over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Moore CHI | 88 | 10 | |
| Artyom Levshunov CHI | 69 | 10 | |
| Ryan Donato CHI | 58 | 10 | |
| Wyatt Kaiser CHI | 58 | 10 | |
| Sam Rinzel CHI | 58 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats