Oliver Moore
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 31?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals12 × 3+36
- proj assists13 × 1+13
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots143 × 0.1+14.3
- PIM49 × 0.05+2.5
- ice time (min)1018 × 0.01+10.2
- total76 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24276 = 31/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 76 points is 31 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Availability: played 13 of 14 for CHI — missed 1 game (2026-10-25).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −2.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 6.9% shooting on 29 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.6% (67 shots before this season) — that's 1.4 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.4 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.1%, worth PD −2.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Blackhawks | 9 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:35 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0.0% | 40.7% |
| 2025-26 | Blackhawks | 51 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -15 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 12:51 | 0 | 0 | 57 | 8.8% | 48.3% |
| 2026-27 | Blackhawks | 18 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:03 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 6.7% | 45.8% |
| 84-G proj | Blackhawks | 84 | 12 | 13 | 25 | — | 46 | — | 3 | — | 13:23 | — | — | 139 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 21 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs BUF | |||||
| P3 08:22 | EV | Assist | #? (Rinzel, Moore) → 2-2 | Kane · Moore Cole · Rinzel | Zucker · Quinn · Ostlund Crevier · Zellweger Lyon (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Oliver over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Nazar CHI | 79 | 8 | |
| Ryan Donato CHI | 69 | 10 | |
| Sam Rinzel CHI | 52 | 10 | |
| Wyatt Kaiser CHI | 47 | 10 | |
| Artyom Levshunov CHI | 43 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats