Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 29?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals8 × 3+24
- proj assists21 × 1+21
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots128 × 0.1+12.8
- PIM49 × 0.05+2.5
- ice time (min)946 × 0.01+9.5
- total70 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24270 = 29/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 70 points is 29 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 0.8 SOG/game lately vs 2.1 before — chances have dried up.
- Cold window: 0.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 5.0/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Did not play the last 1 game (healthy scratch or injury — check the club report before rostering).
- Availability: played 14 of 17 for NJD — missed 3 games (2026-10-20, 2026-10-22, 2026-11-12).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −5.2
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — a discount on real process. The underlying shot numbers say his trade value should climb.
- 0.0% shooting on 26 shots against a league forward baseline of 13.5% — no career track record yet — that's 3.5 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.5 expected goals). WAY under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 9.4%, worth PD −5.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- The shots are there and the finishing isn't — that gap usually closes. Production from his stat line is likely better than it looks from here.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Devils | 17 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:16 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 0.0% | 30.0% |
| 84-G proj | Devils | 84 | 8 | 21 | 28 | — | 46 | — | 4 | — | 12:53 | — | — | 131 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 23 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 · @ COL | |||||
| P3 15:35 | EV | Assist | Brown (Lombardi, Glass) → 2-5 | Glass · Brown · Lombardi Pesce · Siegenthaler | MacKinnon · Necas · Landeskog Makar · Kulak Blackwood (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Amadeus over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Glass NJD | 85 | 10 | |
| Jesper Boqvist NJD | 53 | 10 | |
| Brett Pesce NJD | 51 | 10 | |
| Luke Hughes NJD | 48 | 10 | |
| Connor Brown NJD | 44 | 6 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats