Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 89?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals25 × 3+75
- proj assists68 × 1+68
- PP points75 × 0.5+37.5
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots146 × 0.1+14.6
- PIM35 × 0.05+1.8
- ice time (min)1703 × 0.01+17
- total216 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242216 = 89/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 216 points is 89 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for ANA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +2.0
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 18.2% shooting on 33 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.4% (416 shots before this season) — that's 1.3 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.7 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.7%, worth PD +2.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Ducks | 55 | 12 | 17 | 29 | -11 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 18:07 | 0 | 0 | 109 | 11.0% | 34.8% |
| 2024-25 | Ducks | 76 | 20 | 25 | 45 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 16:14 | 5 | 2 | 114 | 17.5% | 41.4% |
| 2025-26 | Ducks | 70 | 29 | 38 | 67 | 4 | 33 | 4 | 18 | 2 | 19:09 | 3 | 1 | 193 | 15.0% | 44.4% |
| 2026-27 | Ducks | 19 | 6 | 20 | 26 | -2 | 8 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 20:16 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 18.2% | 44.3% |
| 84-G proj | Ducks | 84 | 25 | 68 | 93 | — | 39 | — | 42 | — | 18:18 | — | — | 148 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 21 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Evgeni Malkin (2025-25) · Jack Hughes (2025-25) · Mark Stone (2025-25) · Robert Thomas (2025-25) · Jack Eichel (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 · @ CGY | |||||
| P2 12:02 | EV | Assist | #? (LaCombe, Carlsson) → 2-3 | Gauthier · Carlsson · Sennecke LaCombe | Sharangovich · Klapka · Suniev Hanley · Nemec Wolf (G) |
| P3 00:55 | PP | Goal | #? (Sennecke, Granlund) → 3-3 | Granlund · Gauthier · Sennecke LaCombe | Backlund · Sharangovich Middleton · Whitecloud Wolf (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ EDM | |||||
| P1 09:26 | PP | Assist | #? (LaCombe, Carlsson) → 1-0 | Granlund · Carlsson · Sennecke LaCombe | Dickinson · Michaels Ekholm · Mukhamadullin Tomkins (G) |
| P3 01:42 | PP | Assist | #? (Carlsson, Gauthier) → 5-2 | Granlund · Gauthier · Carlsson LaCombe | Kapanen · Michaels Murphy · Shea Tomkins (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ VAN | |||||
| P2 02:58 | SH | Goal | #? (Mintyukov, Granlund) → 3-1 | Granlund Mintyukov · Warren | Boeser · DeBrusk · Pettersson · Lekkerimaki Hronek Lankinen (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Leo over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson LaCombe ANA | 130 | 10 | |
| Alex Killorn ANA | 95 | 10 | |
| Judd Caulfield ANA | 87 | 9 | |
| Cutter Gauthier ANA | 77 | 10 | |
| Beckett Sennecke ANA | 75 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats