Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 98?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals38 × 3+114
- proj assists50 × 1+50
- PP points49 × 0.5+24.5
- game-winning goals9 × 0.5+4.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots208 × 0.1+20.8
- PIM106 × 0.05+5.3
- ice time (min)1719 × 0.01+17.2
- total236 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242236 = 98/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 236 points is 98 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 18.3 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 6.7/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for ANA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +8.0
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 21.3% shooting on 47 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.5% (197 shots before this season) — that's 4.1 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.9 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 16.3%, worth PD +8.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His regular linemates run hot too (Granlund 18.2%, Gauthier 20.3%, LaCombe 6.7%, Carlsson 18.2%) — this reads as a line effect, not a finishing skill spike. When the line cools, his assists cool with it.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Ducks | 82 | 23 | 37 | 60 | -12 | 62 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 17:27 | 2 | 1 | 197 | 11.7% | 60.0% |
| 2026-27 | Ducks | 19 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 5 | 24 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 20:28 | 2 | 0 | 47 | 21.3% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Ducks | 84 | 38 | 50 | 87 | — | 81 | — | 28 | — | 18:25 | — | — | 180 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 20 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · vs NSH | |||||
| P3 12:11 | EV | Assist | #? (Sennecke, Helleson) → 2-3 | Gauthier · Sennecke Helleson · Mintyukov | Stamkos · O'Reilly · Bourque Josi · Wilsby Annunen (G) |
| Nov 8 · vs PIT | |||||
| P2 09:11 | EV | Assist | #? (Granlund, Sennecke) → 3-0 | Granlund · Sennecke Helleson · LaCombe | Malkin · Crosby · Rakell Karlsson · Girard Silovs (G) |
| Nov 6 · @ CGY | |||||
| P3 00:55 | PP | Assist | #? (Sennecke, Granlund) → 3-3 | Granlund · Gauthier · Sennecke LaCombe | Backlund · Sharangovich Middleton · Whitecloud Wolf (G) |
| P3 18:26 | EV | Assist | #? (Granlund, Sennecke) → 4-3 | Granlund · Sennecke Helleson · LaCombe | Strome · Pospisil · Gridin Whitecloud · Kuznetsov Wolf (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ EDM | |||||
| P2 03:37 | EV | Assist | #? (Sennecke, Helleson) → 2-2 | Granlund · Gauthier · Sennecke Helleson | Dickinson · Joseph · Dach Walman · Mukhamadullin Tomkins (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Beckett over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mikael Granlund ANA | 143 | 9 | |
| Cutter Gauthier ANA | 142 | 10 | |
| Jackson LaCombe ANA | 122 | 10 | |
| Leo Carlsson ANA | 75 | 10 | |
| Tristan Luneau ANA | 57 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats