Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 78?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals24 × 3+72
- proj assists54 × 1+54
- PP points51 × 0.5+25.5
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals5 × 0.25+1.3
- shots154 × 0.1+15.4
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)1731 × 0.01+17.3
- total188 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242188 = 78/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 188 points is 78 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 21.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 5.0/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: played 14 of 15 for ANA — missed 1 game (2026-10-16).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +3.6
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 18.2% shooting on 33 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.6% (1244 shots before this season) — that's 2.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.8 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.9%, worth PD +3.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His regular linemates run hot too (Sennecke 21.3%, Gauthier 20.3%, LaCombe 6.7%, Carlsson 18.2%) — this reads as a line effect, not a finishing skill spike. When the line cools, his assists cool with it.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-13 | Wild | 27 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -4 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13:11 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 5.6% | 47.1% |
| 2013-14 | Wild | 63 | 8 | 33 | 41 | -3 | 22 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 17:19 | 2 | 0 | 104 | 7.7% | 52.6% |
| 2014-15 | Wild | 68 | 8 | 31 | 39 | 17 | 20 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 17:54 | 2 | 0 | 99 | 8.1% | 48.4% |
| 2015-16 | Wild | 82 | 13 | 31 | 44 | -12 | 20 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 18:07 | 3 | 0 | 160 | 8.1% | 48.7% |
| 2016-17 | Wild | 81 | 26 | 43 | 69 | 23 | 12 | 7 | 20 | 3 | 18:49 | 4 | 1 | 177 | 14.7% | 48.5% |
| 2017-18 | Wild | 77 | 21 | 46 | 67 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 19 | 1 | 18:47 | 2 | 0 | 193 | 10.9% | 55.2% |
| 2018-19 | Wild | 63 | 15 | 34 | 49 | -2 | 20 | 2 | 18 | 2 | 18:43 | 5 | 1 | 160 | 9.4% | 45.0% |
| 2018-19 | Predators | 16 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16:54 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 3.5% | 43.6% |
| 2019-20 | Predators | 63 | 17 | 13 | 30 | -4 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 17:48 | 4 | 2 | 130 | 13.1% | 48.7% |
| 2020-21 | Predators | 51 | 13 | 14 | 27 | -1 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 19:28 | 1 | 0 | 74 | 17.6% | 51.8% |
| 2021-22 | Predators | 80 | 11 | 53 | 64 | -9 | 33 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 20:25 | 3 | 0 | 117 | 9.4% | 47.2% |
| 2022-23 | Predators | 58 | 9 | 27 | 36 | -16 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 18:38 | 1 | 0 | 83 | 10.8% | 43.3% |
| 2022-23 | Penguins | 21 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:35 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 2.6% | 48.0% |
| 2023-24 | Sharks | 69 | 12 | 48 | 60 | -23 | 32 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 20:58 | 1 | 1 | 134 | 9.0% | 46.8% |
| 2024-25 | Sharks | 52 | 15 | 30 | 45 | -8 | 20 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 20:51 | 1 | 0 | 126 | 11.9% | 48.4% |
| 2024-25 | Stars | 31 | 7 | 14 | 21 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 17:05 | 3 | 1 | 43 | 16.3% | 66.0% |
| 2025-26 | Ducks | 58 | 19 | 22 | 41 | -9 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 19:10 | 2 | 2 | 117 | 16.2% | 49.7% |
| 2026-27 | Ducks | 18 | 6 | 16 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 20:36 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 18.2% | 49.0% |
| 84-G proj | Ducks | 84 | 24 | 54 | 78 | — | 18 | — | 26 | — | 18:26 | — | — | 152 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 34 that is -5%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Patrick Kane (2025-25) · Roope Hintz (2025-25) · Evgeni Malkin (2025-25) · J.T. Miller (2025-25) · Sebastian Aho (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · vs NSH | |||||
| P1 08:08 | EV | Assist | #? (Granlund) → 1-0 | Granlund · Sennecke Mintyukov · Warren | Colton · Drury · Edstrom Skjei · Perbix Annunen (G) |
| P3 12:11 | EV | Goal | #? (Sennecke, Helleson) → 2-3 | Gauthier · Sennecke Helleson · Mintyukov | Stamkos · O'Reilly · Bourque Josi · Wilsby Annunen (G) |
| Nov 8 · vs PIT | |||||
| P1 08:26 | PP | Goal | #? (Gauthier, LaCombe) → 1-0 | Gauthier · Carlsson · Sennecke LaCombe | Lizotte · Robertson Karlsson · Carlile Silovs (G) |
| P2 06:28 | PP | Assist | #? (Granlund, LaCombe) → 2-0 | Granlund · Carlsson · Sennecke LaCombe | Rakell · Kindel Karlsson · Girard Silovs (G) |
| P2 09:11 | EV | Assist | #? (Granlund, Sennecke) → 3-0 | Granlund · Sennecke Helleson · LaCombe | Malkin · Crosby · Rakell Karlsson · Girard Silovs (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Mikael over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beckett Sennecke ANA | 153 | 10 | |
| Cutter Gauthier ANA | 121 | 9 | |
| Jackson LaCombe ANA | 118 | 10 | |
| Leo Carlsson ANA | 71 | 10 | |
| Tristan Luneau ANA | 53 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats