Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 34?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals5 × 3+15
- proj assists16 × 1+16
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots75 × 0.1+7.5
- PIM35 × 0.05+1.8
- ice time (min)1574 × 0.01+15.7
- total56 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16656 = 34/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 56 points is 34 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 17 of 17 for SJS.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 5.9% shooting on 17 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 4.8% (72 shots before this season) — that's 0.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (0.8 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 5.1%, worth PD +0.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Sharks | 72 | 1 | 13 | 14 | -5 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:45 | 0 | 0 | 72 | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Sharks | 19 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:45 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Sharks | 84 | 5 | 16 | 21 | — | 40 | — | 0 | — | 18:52 | — | — | 87 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 20 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · vs PIT | |||||
| P3 15:49 | EV | Assist | Marchment (Celebrini, Dickinson) → 2-2 | Marchment · Sherwood · Celebrini Trouba · Dickinson | Robertson · Chinakhov · Kindel Karlsson · Stastney Murashov (G) |
| Nov 2 · vs CGY | |||||
| P3 11:57 | EV | Goal | #? (Misa, Trouba) → 1-2 | Marchment · Sherwood · Misa Trouba | Strome · Pospisil · Gridin Bahl · Nemec Wolf (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Sam over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Trouba SJS | 146 | 10 | |
| Kiefer Sherwood SJS | 57 | 10 | |
| Macklin Celebrini SJS | 57 | 10 | |
| Michael Misa SJS | 49 | 10 | |
| Will Smith SJS | 48 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats