Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 67?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals30 × 3+90
- proj assists25 × 1+25
- PP points40 × 0.5+20
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots128 × 0.1+12.8
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)1266 × 0.01+12.7
- total163 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242163 = 67/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 163 points is 67 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.0 SOG/game lately vs 1.2 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: played 16 of 17 for MIN — missed 1 game (2026-10-22).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +6.4
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — his stats are earning more trade value than his underlying play supports. Classic sell-high window.
- 27.6% shooting on 29 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.3% (56 shots before this season) — that's 4.4 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.6 expected goals). WAY over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 17.3%, worth PD +6.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- Sustained shooting at this level is historically rare — plan for the goals (and the points built on them) to cool off toward the baseline.
- His regular linemates run hot too (Yurov 21.4%, Trenin 0.0%, Hughes 11.5%, Kaprizov 27.4%) — this reads as a line effect, not a finishing skill spike. When the line cools, his assists cool with it.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Islanders | 44 | 5 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 13:41 | 0 | 0 | 56 | 8.9% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Wild | 20 | 8 | 5 | 13 | -5 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 14:59 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 27.6% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Wild | 84 | 30 | 25 | 54 | — | 17 | — | 19 | — | 15:07 | — | — | 134 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 26 that is 0%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs TBL | |||||
| P1 02:58 | PP | Goal | #? (Ek, Kaprizov) → 2-0 | Ek · Kaprizov · Boldy Hughes | Cirelli · Hagel Hedman · Moser Hildeby (G) |
| P3 06:49 | EV | Goal | #? → 3-1 | Ek · Trenin Brodin · Hughes | Sabourin · Viel · Geekie Hedman · Moser Hildeby (G) |
| Nov 6 · vs SJS | |||||
| P2 14:15 | PP | Goal | #? (Kaprizov, Hughes) → 2-1 | Ek · Kaprizov · Boldy Hughes | Sherwood · Ostapchuk Nurse · Kesselring Askarov (G) |
| Nov 1 · @ WSH | |||||
| P3 17:37 | PP | Goal | #? (Ek) → 3-1 | Ek · Kaprizov · Boldy Hughes | Jenner · Tuch Roy · Fehervary Thompson (G) |
| Oct 27 · @ UTA | |||||
| P3 11:44 | EV | Goal | Shabanov → 3-0 | Trenin · Yurov · Shabanov Maatta · Brodin | Hayton · Yamamoto · Lee Simashev · DeSimone Vejmelka (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Maxim over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Danila Yurov MIN | 101 | 10 | |
| Yakov Trenin MIN | 94 | 10 | |
| Quinn Hughes MIN | 80 | 10 | |
| Kirill Kaprizov MIN | 45 | 10 | |
| Matt Boldy MIN | 40 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats