Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 81?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals28 × 3+84
- proj assists42 × 1+42
- PP points21 × 0.5+10.5
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots349 × 0.1+34.9
- PIM80 × 0.05+4
- ice time (min)1802 × 0.01+18
- total195 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242195 = 81/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 195 points is 81 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 17 of 17 for MIN.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −9.1
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 8.4% shooting on 83 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.9% (1120 shots before this season) — that's 3.7 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (10.7 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.3%, worth PD −9.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Wild | 47 | 15 | 24 | 39 | 17 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 15:23 | 2 | 0 | 113 | 13.3% | 37.5% |
| 2022-23 | Wild | 81 | 31 | 32 | 63 | 1 | 39 | 8 | 26 | 0 | 18:30 | 5 | 1 | 255 | 12.2% | 54.6% |
| 2023-24 | Wild | 75 | 29 | 40 | 69 | 5 | 48 | 10 | 25 | 0 | 18:55 | 7 | 1 | 227 | 12.8% | 42.0% |
| 2024-25 | Wild | 82 | 27 | 46 | 73 | 1 | 51 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 20:17 | 10 | 2 | 271 | 10.0% | 46.4% |
| 2025-26 | Wild | 76 | 42 | 43 | 85 | 18 | 30 | 11 | 30 | 4 | 20:34 | 3 | 1 | 254 | 16.5% | 44.4% |
| 2026-27 | Wild | 21 | 10 | 11 | 21 | 17 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 21:32 | 2 | 0 | 88 | 11.4% | 22.9% |
| 84-G proj | Wild | 84 | 28 | 42 | 69 | — | 66 | — | 27 | — | 19:06 | — | — | 258 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Gabriel Landeskog (2025-25) · Tyler Seguin (2025-25) · Bryan Rust (2025-25) · Gabriel Vilardi (2025-25) · Jared McCann (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ TOR | |||||
| P1 17:53 | EV | Goal | #? (Kaprizov) → 1-0 | Ek · Kaprizov Hughes · Kiersted | Blueger · Duhaime · MacEwen McCabe · Stecher Stolarz (G) |
| P2 09:55 | PP | Goal | #? (Hughes, Kaprizov) → 2-2 | Hartman · Kaprizov · Shabanov Hughes | Paul · Tverberg McCabe · Stecher Stolarz (G) |
| P3 03:59 | EV | Goal | #? (Hartman, Bogosian) → 3-2 | Hartman · Kaprizov Bogosian · Kiersted | Tavares · Nylander · Cowan Ekman-Larsson · Stecher Stolarz (G) |
| Nov 10 · @ MTL | |||||
| P4 00:21 | PP | Assist | Kaprizov (Boldy, Hughes) → 2-1 | Ek · Kaprizov · Boldy Hughes | Evans Carrier · Guhle Fowler (G) |
| Nov 6 · vs SJS | |||||
| P1 07:55 | PP | Assist | Kaprizov (Hughes, Boldy) → 1-0 | Ek · Kaprizov · Boldy · Shabanov Hughes | Goodrow Trouba · Nurse Askarov (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Matt over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov MIN | 192 | 10 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek MIN | 173 | 10 | |
| Quinn Hughes MIN | 167 | 10 | |
| Jonas Brodin MIN | 113 | 10 | |
| Maxim Shabanov MIN | 40 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats