Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 69?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals22 × 3+66
- proj assists37 × 1+37
- PP points29 × 0.5+14.5
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots269 × 0.1+26.9
- PIM59 × 0.05+3
- ice time (min)1663 × 0.01+16.6
- total166 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242166 = 69/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 166 points is 69 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 17 of 17 for MIN.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.8
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 9.4% shooting on 64 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 10.7% (1403 shots before this season) — that's 0.9 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (6.9 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.0%, worth PD −1.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Wild | 15 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:37 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 20.0% | 41.3% |
| 2017-18 | Wild | 75 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:47 | 0 | 0 | 124 | 4.8% | 42.6% |
| 2018-19 | Wild | 58 | 7 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:30 | 2 | 0 | 111 | 6.3% | 45.7% |
| 2019-20 | Wild | 62 | 8 | 21 | 29 | 7 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15:43 | 4 | 0 | 102 | 7.8% | 46.2% |
| 2020-21 | Wild | 56 | 19 | 11 | 30 | 16 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17:03 | 2 | 0 | 119 | 16.0% | 47.1% |
| 2021-22 | Wild | 77 | 26 | 23 | 49 | 16 | 28 | 12 | 17 | 0 | 18:35 | 3 | 2 | 223 | 11.7% | 47.6% |
| 2022-23 | Wild | 78 | 23 | 38 | 61 | 4 | 44 | 12 | 23 | 2 | 19:00 | 1 | 0 | 247 | 9.3% | 49.4% |
| 2023-24 | Wild | 77 | 30 | 34 | 64 | 18 | 60 | 12 | 21 | 1 | 20:32 | 5 | 0 | 267 | 11.2% | 49.7% |
| 2024-25 | Wild | 46 | 14 | 15 | 29 | 9 | 22 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 19:46 | 1 | 0 | 140 | 10.0% | 47.1% |
| 2025-26 | Wild | 70 | 19 | 32 | 51 | 16 | 32 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 19:05 | 3 | 0 | 194 | 9.8% | 49.0% |
| 2026-27 | Wild | 21 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 19:22 | 1 | 0 | 67 | 9.0% | 48.3% |
| 84-G proj | Wild | 84 | 22 | 37 | 60 | — | 53 | — | 21 | — | 18:04 | — | — | 213 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 29 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Mikael Granlund (2025-25) · Pierre-Luc Dubois (2025-25) · William Karlsson (2024-24) · Kyle Palmieri (2025-25) · Elias Pettersson (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs TBL | |||||
| P1 02:58 | PP | Assist | #? (Ek, Kaprizov) → 2-0 | Ek · Kaprizov · Boldy Hughes | Cirelli · Hagel Hedman · Moser Hildeby (G) |
| Nov 6 · vs SJS | |||||
| P3 13:58 | EV | Assist | #? (Ek, Kaprizov) → 4-1 | Ek · Kaprizov · Boldy Maatta | Marchment · Sherwood · Graf Trouba · Dickinson Askarov (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ PHI | |||||
| P2 00:42 | EV | Goal | #? (Boldy) → 3-0 | Kaprizov · Boldy Maatta · Hughes | Cates · Zegras · Michkov Sanheim · Drysdale Vladar (G) |
| Nov 1 · @ WSH | |||||
| P3 17:37 | PP | Assist | #? (Ek) → 3-1 | Ek · Kaprizov · Boldy Hughes | Jenner · Tuch Roy · Fehervary Thompson (G) |
| P3 19:02 | EV | Assist | #? (Boldy, Ek) → 4-1 | Ek · Boldy Bogosian · Kiersted | Wilson · Tuch · Strome · Dubois Chychrun Thompson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Joel over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Boldy MIN | 173 | 10 | |
| Kirill Kaprizov MIN | 167 | 10 | |
| Quinn Hughes MIN | 145 | 10 | |
| Jonas Brodin MIN | 101 | 10 | |
| Maxim Shabanov MIN | 39 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats