Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 49?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals6 × 3+18
- proj assists28 × 1+28
- PP points5 × 0.5+2.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots124 × 0.1+12.4
- PIM59 × 0.05+3
- ice time (min)1775 × 0.01+17.8
- total82 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16682 = 49/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 82 points is 49 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 6.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 3.0/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for FLA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.9
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 4.0% shooting on 25 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 6.5% (1314 shots before this season) — that's 0.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 5.7%, worth PD −0.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-15 | Panthers | 81 | 12 | 27 | 39 | 12 | 32 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 21:49 | 4 | 0 | 170 | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Panthers | 78 | 15 | 21 | 36 | 18 | 41 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 21:41 | 4 | 0 | 182 | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Panthers | 68 | 10 | 11 | 21 | -23 | 58 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 21:28 | 2 | 1 | 225 | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Panthers | 82 | 16 | 22 | 38 | 9 | 71 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 23:23 | 4 | 1 | 189 | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Panthers | 82 | 13 | 24 | 37 | 1 | 47 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 23:39 | 1 | 1 | 180 | 7.2% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Panthers | 67 | 5 | 36 | 41 | 12 | 26 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 22:59 | 1 | 1 | 147 | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Panthers | 35 | 11 | 11 | 22 | 5 | 33 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 25:05 | 3 | 1 | 101 | 10.9% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Panthers | 61 | 15 | 42 | 57 | 38 | 26 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 24:55 | 2 | 2 | 180 | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Panthers | 71 | 14 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 68 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 23:24 | 2 | 0 | 216 | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Panthers | 51 | 4 | 14 | 18 | 27 | 50 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 20:52 | 1 | 0 | 98 | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Panthers | 56 | 3 | 30 | 33 | 11 | 53 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 23:31 | 2 | 0 | 106 | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Panthers | 72 | 4 | 22 | 26 | -5 | 55 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 22:29 | 3 | 0 | 97 | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Panthers | 18 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -2 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21:14 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Panthers | 84 | 6 | 28 | 34 | — | 55 | — | 5 | — | 20:17 | — | — | 114 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Aaron Ekblad (2025-25) · Hampus Lindholm (2025-25) · Ryan McDonagh (2025-25) · Drew Doughty (2025-25) · John Marino (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs DET | |||||
| P3 02:32 | EV | Assist | Lundell (Verhaeghe, Ekblad) → 3-4 | Eller · Verhaeghe · Reinhart · Bennett · Luostarinen · Lundell · Vilmanis Ekblad · Forsling | Copp · Kolesar · Appleton · Raymond · Brandsegg-Nygård Englund · Seider · Wallinder Gibson (G) |
| Nov 10 · @ CBJ | |||||
| P2 04:17 | EV | Assist | Eller (Verhaeghe, Ekblad) → 2-0 | Eller · Verhaeghe · Reinhart Ekblad · Forsling | Monahan · Johnson · Knies Gudbranson · Provorov · Fabbro Talbot (G) |
| P3 14:29 | EV | Assist | Bennett (Ekblad, Tkachuk) → 3-1 | Bennett · Tkachuk · Luostarinen · Lundell Jones · Ekblad · Forsling · Mikkola | Coyle · Nichushkin · Sillinger · Knies Severson · Werenski · Provorov · Mateychuk Talbot (G) |
| Nov 2 · vs DET | |||||
| P2 15:25 | SH | Goal | Ekblad (Hathaway, Eller) → 2-2 | Eller · Hathaway · Bennett · Tkachuk Gudas · Ekblad · Forsling · Mikkola | Arvidsson · Kolesar · DeBrincat · Dries · Raymond · Mazur Chiarot · Seider Tarasov (G) |
| Oct 25 · @ CHI | |||||
| P3 17:37 | EV | Assist | Eller (Ekblad) → 3-2 | Lundell · Eller · Verhaeghe Ekblad · Forsling | Frondell · Greene · Bertuzzi Kaiser · Levshunov |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Aaron over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gustav Forsling FLA | 189 | 10 | |
| Lars Eller FLA | 74 | 10 | |
| Eetu Luostarinen FLA | 72 | 10 | |
| Anton Lundell FLA | 66 | 9 | |
| Sam Reinhart FLA | 64 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats