Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 83?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals8 × 3+24
- proj assists68 × 1+68
- PP points25 × 0.5+12.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots126 × 0.1+12.6
- PIM25 × 0.05+1.3
- ice time (min)1923 × 0.01+19.2
- total138 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166138 = 83/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 138 points is 83 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for NYR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.4
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 6.7% shooting on 30 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 7.7% (907 shots before this season) — that's 0.3 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 7.4%, worth PD −0.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Rangers | 70 | 8 | 34 | 42 | 22 | 32 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 18:54 | 4 | 0 | 125 | 6.4% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Rangers | 55 | 5 | 42 | 47 | 19 | 14 | 2 | 23 | 1 | 24:42 | 1 | 0 | 102 | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Rangers | 78 | 11 | 63 | 74 | 18 | 26 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 23:54 | 2 | 1 | 158 | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Rangers | 82 | 12 | 60 | 72 | 28 | 34 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 24:23 | 5 | 1 | 159 | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Rangers | 72 | 17 | 56 | 73 | 21 | 36 | 6 | 33 | 1 | 23:27 | 5 | 1 | 137 | 12.4% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Rangers | 74 | 10 | 51 | 61 | 9 | 32 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 23:15 | 2 | 0 | 135 | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Rangers | 55 | 9 | 44 | 53 | 5 | 20 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 23:38 | 1 | 0 | 91 | 9.9% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Rangers | 20 | 2 | 20 | 22 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 22:53 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Rangers | 84 | 8 | 68 | 76 | — | 33 | — | 25 | — | 21:28 | — | — | 117 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 28 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Shayne Gostisbehere (2025-25) · Quinn Hughes (2025-25) · Adam Fox (2025-25) · Evan Bouchard (2025-25) · Cale Makar (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · @ SEA | |||||
| P1 09:05 | PP | Assist | Kartye (Fox, Bjorkstrand) → 2-0 | Miller · Bjorkstrand · Tolvanen · Kartye · Cuylle · Chmelar · Laba Pettersson · Fox · Schneider | Eberle · Stephenson · McMann · Beniers · Winterton Montour · Mahura · Evans · Ottavainen Daccord (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs PHI | |||||
| P3 13:52 | PP | Assist | Dorofeyev (Zibanejad, Fox) → 2-2 | Zibanejad · Tolvanen · Dorofeyev · Lafrenière · Cuylle · Laba · Perreault Pettersson · Fox · Schneider | Dvorak · Konecny · Zegras · Foerster Seeler · Sanheim · Benoit · Drysdale Woll (G) |
| P3 15:21 | EV | Assist | Kartye (Fox, Bjorkstrand) → 3-2 | Zibanejad · Miller · Bjorkstrand · Kartye · Lafrenière · Perreault Pettersson · Gavrikov · Fox · Schneider | Couturier · Acciari · Tippett · Knuble · Barkey · Martone Sanheim · York · Drysdale · Bonk Woll (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs STL | |||||
| P2 01:49 | EV | Goal | Fox (Kartye, Miller) → 1-0 | Zibanejad · Miller · Dorofeyev · Kartye · Lafrenière · Perreault Fox · Morrow · Smits | Berggren · McMichael · Holloway · McTavish Fowler · Carlo · Broberg · Jiricek Hofer (G) |
| P3 17:59 | EV | Assist | Tolvanen (Miller, Fox) → 3-0 | Miller · Tolvanen · Kartye · Rempe · Chmelar · Laba Pettersson · Gavrikov · Fox · Schneider | Johnston · Thomas · Toropchenko · Suter · Neighbours · McTavish · Snuggerud Carlo · Broberg · Barron · Lindstein Hofer (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Adam over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vladislav Gavrikov NYR | 158 | 10 | |
| Mika Zibanejad NYR | 108 | 10 | |
| J.T. Miller NYR | 102 | 10 | |
| Alexis Lafrenière NYR | 98 | 10 | |
| Tye Kartye NYR | 81 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats