Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 45?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals18 × 3+54
- proj assists18 × 1+18
- PP points9 × 0.5+4.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots133 × 0.1+13.3
- PIM190 × 0.05+9.5
- ice time (min)996 × 0.01+10
- total109 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242109 = 45/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 109 points is 45 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for CGY.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.7
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 13.3% shooting on 30 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.8% (124 shots before this season) — that's 0.5 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.5 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.3%, worth PD +0.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Flames | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:46 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Flames | 31 | 6 | 4 | 10 | -3 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:39 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 13.6% | 35.3% |
| 2025-26 | Flames | 79 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -12 | 112 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10:38 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 7.5% | 32.4% |
| 2026-27 | Flames | 19 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 43 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 11:52 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 13.3% | 36.4% |
| 84-G proj | Flames | 84 | 18 | 18 | 36 | — | 129 | — | 5 | — | 13:09 | — | — | 133 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 26 that is 0%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · vs NYR | |||||
| P3 07:41 | PP | Goal | Klapka (Strome, Sharangovich) → 1-2 | Backlund · Strome · Farabee · Sharangovich · Coronato · Klapka · Suniev Hanley · Nemec · Parekh | Zibanejad · Tolvanen · Lafrenière · Perreault Pettersson · Robertson · Schneider · Morrow Korpisalo (G) |
| Nov 2 · @ SJS | |||||
| P1 14:36 | EV | Goal | Klapka (Castagna) → 1-0 | Stromgren · Klapka · Castagna Middleton · Whitecloud · Bahl · Nemec | Toffoli · Marchment · Sherwood · Smith · Celebrini · Misa Orlov · Nurse · Kesselring · Allan Askarov (G) |
| P3 09:14 | EV | Assist | Stromgren (Klapka, #?) → 2-0 | Frost · Sharangovich · Stromgren · Klapka · Suniev Kuznetsov · Nemec · Parekh | Marchment · Sherwood · Bystedt · Graf · Misa · Stenberg Orlov · Trouba · Allan · Dickinson Askarov (G) |
| Oct 24 · vs DET | |||||
| P1 17:50 | EV | Assist | Farabee (Klapka, Bahl) → 1-0 | Castagna · Klapka · Farabee Bahl · Parekh | Compher · Finnie · DeBrincat Johansson · Johansson Gibson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Adam over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Castagna CGY | 82 | 10 | |
| Simon Nemec CGY | 52 | 10 | |
| Yan Kuznetsov CGY | 44 | 10 | |
| Zayne Parekh CGY | 43 | 10 | |
| Jacob Middleton CGY | 32 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats