Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 34?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals11 × 3+33
- proj assists19 × 1+19
- PP points4 × 0.5+2
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots115 × 0.1+11.5
- PIM62 × 0.05+3.1
- ice time (min)1388 × 0.01+13.9
- total83 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24283 = 34/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 83 points is 34 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.0 SOG/game lately vs 1.7 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for ANA.
- Veteran card: age 37 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −2.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 7.7% shooting on 26 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.7% (1294 shots before this season) — that's 1.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.9%, worth PD −2.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-13 | Lightning | 38 | 7 | 12 | 19 | -6 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16:49 | 2 | 0 | 82 | 8.5% | 39.3% |
| 2013-14 | Lightning | 82 | 17 | 24 | 41 | 8 | 63 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 16:47 | 2 | 1 | 173 | 9.8% | 43.0% |
| 2014-15 | Lightning | 71 | 15 | 23 | 38 | 8 | 36 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16:56 | 5 | 0 | 130 | 11.5% | 43.8% |
| 2015-16 | Lightning | 81 | 14 | 26 | 40 | 14 | 44 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 16:48 | 3 | 1 | 154 | 9.1% | 38.8% |
| 2016-17 | Lightning | 81 | 19 | 17 | 36 | -9 | 66 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 18:00 | 4 | 0 | 176 | 10.8% | 33.3% |
| 2017-18 | Lightning | 82 | 15 | 32 | 47 | 22 | 45 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 16:30 | 1 | 0 | 156 | 9.6% | 40.0% |
| 2018-19 | Lightning | 82 | 18 | 22 | 40 | 22 | 45 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14:52 | 2 | 1 | 153 | 11.8% | 20.0% |
| 2019-20 | Lightning | 68 | 26 | 23 | 49 | 19 | 20 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 17:56 | 7 | 0 | 130 | 20.0% | 26.3% |
| 2020-21 | Lightning | 56 | 15 | 18 | 33 | -1 | 37 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 17:54 | 1 | 1 | 121 | 12.4% | 33.3% |
| 2021-22 | Lightning | 82 | 25 | 34 | 59 | 1 | 66 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 18:42 | 2 | 0 | 164 | 15.2% | 16.7% |
| 2022-23 | Lightning | 82 | 27 | 37 | 64 | 18 | 45 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 17:13 | 5 | 2 | 143 | 18.9% | 50.0% |
| 2023-24 | Ducks | 63 | 18 | 18 | 36 | -15 | 54 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 18:44 | 5 | 1 | 145 | 12.4% | 35.9% |
| 2024-25 | Ducks | 82 | 19 | 18 | 37 | 12 | 30 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 17:17 | 5 | 1 | 134 | 14.2% | 38.1% |
| 2025-26 | Ducks | 82 | 15 | 18 | 33 | -2 | 40 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 16:42 | 2 | 0 | 148 | 10.1% | 33.3% |
| 2026-27 | Ducks | 19 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:32 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 7.7% | 20.0% |
| 84-G proj | Ducks | 84 | 11 | 19 | 30 | — | 54 | — | 4 | — | 16:00 | — | — | 129 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 37 that is -8%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kasperi Kapanen (2025-25) · William Carrier (2025-25) · Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2025-25) · Nic Dowd (2025-25) · Lars Eller (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 · vs PIT | |||||
| P3 05:12 | PP | Assist | Luneau (Killorn, McQueen) → 4-0 | Killorn · Vatrano · Caulfield · Nesterenko · Myatovic · McQueen · Washe Helleson · LaCombe · Luneau | Malkin · Crosby · Robertson · Chinakhov · Kindel Letang · Stastney · Korczak · Carlile Silovs (G) |
| Oct 24 · @ PHI | |||||
| P2 16:19 | EV | Assist | #? (Killorn, Luneau) → 3-3 | Nesterenko · Killorn Mitchell · Luneau | Couturier · Dvorak · Michkov Sanheim · Ristolainen Woll (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Alex over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Carlsson ANA | 95 | 10 | |
| Judd Caulfield ANA | 85 | 9 | |
| Jackson LaCombe ANA | 77 | 10 | |
| Drew Helleson ANA | 61 | 8 | |
| Tristan Luneau ANA | 59 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats