Alex Tuch
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 76?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals38 × 3+114
- proj assists17 × 1+17
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals26 × 0.5+13
- OT goals5 × 0.25+1.3
- shots221 × 0.1+22.1
- PIM21 × 0.05+1.1
- ice time (min)1615 × 0.01+16.2
- total185 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242185 = 76/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 185 points is 76 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.7 SOG/game lately vs 2.7 before — chances have dried up.
- Cold window: 3.3 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 11.4/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 13 of 13 for WSH.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +11.9
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — his stats are earning more trade value than his underlying play supports. Classic sell-high window.
- 26.2% shooting on 42 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.1% (1531 shots before this season) — that's 5.5 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.5 expected goals). WAY over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 18.5%, worth PD +11.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- Sustained shooting at this level is historically rare — plan for the goals (and the points built on them) to cool off toward the baseline.
- His regular linemates run hot too (Strome 9.4%, Kyrou 20.8%, Chychrun 4.0%, Hutson 15.6%) — this reads as a line effect, not a finishing skill spike. When the line cools, his assists cool with it.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Wild | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:42 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Golden Knights | 78 | 15 | 22 | 37 | 3 | 27 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 15:15 | 4 | 0 | 171 | 8.8% | 42.4% |
| 2018-19 | Golden Knights | 74 | 20 | 32 | 52 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 16:44 | 6 | 1 | 180 | 11.1% | 38.4% |
| 2019-20 | Golden Knights | 42 | 8 | 9 | 17 | -10 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 14:37 | 2 | 0 | 98 | 8.2% | 28.6% |
| 2020-21 | Golden Knights | 55 | 18 | 15 | 33 | 16 | 28 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 16:50 | 3 | 0 | 142 | 12.7% | 37.5% |
| 2021-22 | Sabres | 50 | 12 | 26 | 38 | -3 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 18:25 | 0 | 0 | 139 | 8.6% | 39.1% |
| 2022-23 | Sabres | 74 | 36 | 43 | 79 | 14 | 20 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 19:09 | 9 | 1 | 218 | 16.5% | 42.7% |
| 2023-24 | Sabres | 75 | 22 | 37 | 59 | 9 | 54 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 19:30 | 7 | 0 | 192 | 11.5% | 40.0% |
| 2024-25 | Sabres | 82 | 36 | 31 | 67 | 16 | 47 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 19:15 | 4 | 1 | 196 | 18.4% | 41.0% |
| 2025-26 | Sabres | 79 | 33 | 33 | 66 | 24 | 57 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 19:00 | 2 | 1 | 195 | 16.9% | 46.9% |
| 2026-27 | Capitals | 17 | 11 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19:10 | 5 | 1 | 42 | 26.2% | 52.9% |
| 84-G proj | Capitals | 84 | 38 | 17 | 54 | — | 31 | — | 6 | — | 17:30 | — | — | 182 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Zach Hyman (2025-25) · Steven Stamkos (2025-25) · Pavel Dorofeyev (2025-25) · Morgan Geekie (2025-25) · Anthony Mantha (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs FLA | |||||
| P2 04:39 | EV | Goal | Tuch → 2-2 | Jenner · Tuch · Strome · Beauvillier · Kyrou · Protas Roy · Chychrun · Ivany · Hutson | Eller · Bennett · Tkachuk · Luostarinen · Tkachuk · Reinhardt Jones · Ekblad · Forsling · Mikkola Schmid (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ NSH | |||||
| P3 10:09 | EV | Goal | Tuch (Kyrou, Chychrun) → 4-3 | Jenner · Tuch · Strome · Kyrou · Sourdif · Leonard Roy · Chychrun · Liljegren · Fehervary | Stamkos · O'Reilly · Forsberg · Kerfoot · Hoglander · Bourque Josi · Struble · Hunt · Wilsby Saros (G) |
| Oct 28 · vs PHI | |||||
| P1 01:50 | EV | Goal | Tuch (Strome, St. Ivany) → 1-0 | Strome · Kyrou · Tuch St. Ivany · Hutson | Cates · Michkov · Martone York · Seeler Woll (G) |
| P3 17:36 | EV | Goal | Tuch (Dubois) → 5-2 | Protas · Dubois · Tuch Chychrun · Liljegren | Bump · Michkov · Knuble · Foerster · Barkey Sanheim · Bonk |
| Oct 24 · vs BUF | |||||
| P1 16:10 | EV | Goal | Tuch (Kyrou) → 1-2 | Strome · Kyrou · Tuch Fehérváry · Hutson | Norris · Zucker · Thompson Gilbert · Crevier Luukkonen (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Alex over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Strome WSH | 109 | 10 | |
| Jordan Kyrou WSH | 86 | 10 | |
| Jakob Chychrun WSH | 79 | 10 | |
| Cole Hutson WSH | 73 | 10 | |
| Martin Fehervary WSH | 61 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats