Anthony Duclair
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 39?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals17 × 3+51
- proj assists15 × 1+15
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots109 × 0.1+10.9
- PIM109 × 0.05+5.5
- ice time (min)1138 × 0.01+11.4
- total94 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24294 = 39/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 94 points is 39 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 13 of 13 for NYI.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 18.2% shooting on 22 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.0% (990 shots before this season) — that's 0.9 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.1 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.1%, worth PD +1.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-15 | Rangers | 18 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:09 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Coyotes | 81 | 20 | 24 | 44 | 12 | 49 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 14:23 | 2 | 0 | 105 | 19.1% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Coyotes | 58 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -7 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13:18 | 1 | 0 | 76 | 6.6% | 50.0% |
| 2017-18 | Coyotes | 33 | 9 | 6 | 15 | -5 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13:27 | 1 | 1 | 68 | 13.2% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Blackhawks | 23 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:02 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 6.9% | 50.0% |
| 2018-19 | Blue Jackets | 53 | 11 | 8 | 19 | -3 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 12:19 | 2 | 0 | 92 | 12.0% | 13.3% |
| 2018-19 | Senators | 21 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13:41 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Senators | 66 | 23 | 17 | 40 | -5 | 18 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 16:16 | 2 | 2 | 184 | 12.5% | 50.0% |
| 2020-21 | Panthers | 43 | 10 | 22 | 32 | 27 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 15:41 | 1 | 0 | 104 | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Panthers | 74 | 31 | 27 | 58 | 19 | 30 | 9 | 21 | 0 | 15:00 | 5 | 1 | 167 | 18.6% | 50.0% |
| 2022-23 | Panthers | 20 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Sharks | 56 | 16 | 11 | 27 | -12 | 28 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 16:10 | 1 | 0 | 98 | 16.3% | 36.4% |
| 2023-24 | Lightning | 17 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14:27 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 25.8% | 38.5% |
| 2024-25 | Islanders | 44 | 7 | 4 | 11 | -15 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15:03 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Islanders | 62 | 12 | 15 | 27 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 13:12 | 2 | 0 | 74 | 16.2% | 40.0% |
| 2026-27 | Islanders | 18 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:34 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 18.2% | 33.3% |
| 84-G proj | Islanders | 84 | 17 | 15 | 32 | — | 80 | — | 4 | — | 14:13 | — | — | 124 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 31 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kailer Yamamoto (2025-25) · Kirby Dach (2025-25) · Mark Jankowski (2025-25) · Anthony Duclair (2025-25) · Cody Glass (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Date | Opp | Type | When | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | vs NJD | Goal | 15:06 · P1 · EV | Duclair (#?, Pageau) → 1-0 | Duclair · Pageau Kessel · Hutton · DeAngelo | Rodrigues · Mantha · Boqvist Hamilton · Siegenthaler Allen (G) |
| Oct 27 | @ NSH | Goal | 03:07 · P1 · EV | Duclair (Pageau, #?) → 1-0 | Duclair · Pageau Pulock · Stanley | Edstrom · O'Reilly Struble · Hague Saros (G) |
| Oct 25 | @ DAL | Assist | 17:45 · P2 · EV | Schenn (Duclair, Heineman) → 3-3 | Schenn · Duclair · Heineman Pelech · DeAngelo | Robertson · Johnston · Seguin Heiskanen · Myers Oettinger (G) |
| Oct 20 | vs ANA | Assist | 13:39 · P1 · EV | Palat (Pageau, Duclair) → 1-0 | Duclair · Pageau · Palat Stanley · Schaefer | Nesterenko · Gauthier · Carlsson Luneau · Mintyukov Dostal (G) |
| Oct 17 | @ TOR | Goal | 08:18 · P1 · EV | Duclair (Pageau) → 1-0 | Duclair · Pageau · Heineman Kessel · Pulock · DeAngelo | Paul · Cowan · Marchenko Blankenburg · Ekman-Larsson Bobrovsky (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Anthony over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ondrej Palat NYI | 93 | 10 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI | 92 | 9 | |
| Tony DeAngelo NYI | 56 | 10 | |
| Matthew Schaefer NYI | 55 | 10 | |
| Logan Stanley NYI | 45 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats