Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 48?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals18 × 3+54
- proj assists21 × 1+21
- PP points5 × 0.5+2.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots233 × 0.1+23.3
- PIM28 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1475 × 0.01+14.8
- total117 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242117 = 48/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 117 points is 48 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 11.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 2.2/10 season baseline.
- Availability: played 15 of 16 for FLA — missed 1 game (2026-11-07).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −3.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 8.0% shooting on 50 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.1% (739 shots before this season) — that's 1.5 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.5 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 9.7%, worth PD −3.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Panthers | 65 | 18 | 26 | 44 | 33 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 15:44 | 4 | 0 | 125 | 14.4% | 44.7% |
| 2022-23 | Panthers | 73 | 12 | 21 | 33 | 1 | 43 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 16:22 | 1 | 0 | 152 | 7.9% | 46.5% |
| 2023-24 | Panthers | 78 | 13 | 22 | 35 | 19 | 46 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 15:23 | 2 | 1 | 166 | 7.8% | 54.9% |
| 2024-25 | Panthers | 79 | 17 | 28 | 45 | 17 | 36 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 16:43 | 1 | 0 | 158 | 10.8% | 53.0% |
| 2025-26 | Panthers | 64 | 18 | 26 | 44 | -8 | 34 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 19:09 | 3 | 0 | 138 | 13.0% | 51.8% |
| 2026-27 | Panthers | 19 | 6 | 4 | 10 | -5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:28 | 1 | 0 | 53 | 11.3% | 51.3% |
| 84-G proj | Panthers | 84 | 18 | 21 | 39 | — | 34 | — | 12 | — | 16:36 | — | — | 189 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Robby Fabbri (2024-24) · Alexandre Texier (2025-25) · Anthony Duclair (2025-25) · Teddy Blueger (2025-25) · Jaden Schwartz (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs DET | |||||
| P3 02:32 | EV | Goal | Lundell (Verhaeghe, Ekblad) → 3-4 | Eller · Verhaeghe · Reinhart · Bennett · Luostarinen · Lundell · Vilmanis Ekblad · Forsling | Copp · Kolesar · Appleton · Raymond · Brandsegg-Nygård Englund · Seider · Wallinder Gibson (G) |
| P3 17:20 | EV | Goal | Lundell (Tkachuk, Tkachuk) → 5-4 | Eller · Verhaeghe · Reinhart · Tkachuk · Tkachuk · Lundell Jones · Ekblad · Forsling · Mikkola | Copp · Compher · Arvidsson · DeBrincat · Raymond · Mazur · Finnie Chiarot · Faulk · Seider Gibson (G) |
| Nov 10 · @ CBJ | |||||
| P2 02:00 | PP | Assist | Bennett (Lundell, #?) → 1-0 | Bennett · Tkachuk · Luostarinen · Lundell · Devine Ekblad · Forsling | Monahan · Nichushkin · Voronkov · Fantilli Gudbranson · Severson · Werenski · Mateychuk Talbot (G) |
| P3 17:44 | EV | Assist | Reinhart (Lundell, Luostarinen) → 4-1 | Hathaway · Reinhart · Imama · Luostarinen · Schwindt · Lundell Kulikov · Gudas · Jones · Mikkola | Coyle · Lorentz · Lomberg · Olivier · Sillinger · Fantilli · Williams Severson · Werenski · Provorov · Mateychuk Talbot (G) |
| Oct 30 · vs WPG | |||||
| P2 02:38 | EV | Goal | Lundell (Jones) → 2-0 | Eller · Hathaway · Imama · Luostarinen · Schwindt · Lundell Kulikov · Gudas · Jones · Mikkola | Scheifele · Connor · Barron · Koepke · Mercer · Björck DeMelo · Fleury · Ferraro · Bauer Daws (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Anton over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eetu Luostarinen FLA | 138 | 10 | |
| Aaron Ekblad FLA | 75 | 10 | |
| Gustav Forsling FLA | 73 | 10 | |
| Seth Jones FLA | 65 | 10 | |
| Niko Mikkola FLA | 58 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats