Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 42?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals18 × 3+54
- proj assists16 × 1+16
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots163 × 0.1+16.3
- PIM44 × 0.05+2.2
- ice time (min)1249 × 0.01+12.5
- total101 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242101 = 42/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 101 points is 42 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 6.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 3.8/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for DAL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.5
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 12.1% shooting on 33 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.0% (29 shots before this season) — that's 0.3 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.7%, worth PD −0.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Stars | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:05 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.0% | 68.8% |
| 2025-26 | Stars | 20 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11:47 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 12.5% | 57.9% |
| 2026-27 | Stars | 18 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14:48 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 14.7% | 63.0% |
| 84-G proj | Stars | 84 | 18 | 16 | 34 | — | 44 | — | 0 | — | 15:00 | — | — | 151 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs WPG | |||||
| P1 04:19 | EV | Goal | #? (Hintz, Harley) → 1-0 | Hintz · Robertson Lindell · Harley | Scheifele · Connor · Vilardi DeMelo · Morrissey Skinner (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ WSH | |||||
| P2 03:18 | EV | Assist | #? (Hyry, #?) → 3-0 | Hintz · Hyry Lindell · Harley | Tuch · Strome · Kyrou Roy · Chychrun Thompson (G) |
| Oct 31 · vs CBJ | |||||
| P1 19:59 | EV | Assist | Harley (Hyry, Heiskanen) → 2-0 | Benn · Perron · Hyry Heiskanen · Harley | Coyle · Nichushkin · Sillinger Gudbranson · Werenski Greaves (G) |
| P3 19:59 | EV | Goal | #? (Benn, Heiskanen) → 3-1 | Benn · Hintz Lindell · Heiskanen | Coyle · Monahan · Fantilli Severson · Werenski Greaves (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Arttu over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Harley DAL | 55 | 10 | |
| Tyler Myers DAL | 51 | 10 | |
| Esa Lindell DAL | 50 | 8 | |
| Nils Lundkvist DAL | 48 | 10 | |
| Jason Robertson DAL | 46 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats