Artturi Lehkonen
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 76?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals39 × 3+117
- proj assists22 × 1+22
- PP points9 × 0.5+4.5
- game-winning goals9 × 0.5+4.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots186 × 0.1+18.6
- PIM18 × 0.05+0.9
- ice time (min)1565 × 0.01+15.7
- total183 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242183 = 76/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 183 points is 76 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Cold window: 3.3 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 13.0/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for COL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +14.5
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — his stats are earning more trade value than his underlying play supports. Classic sell-high window.
- 31.0% shooting on 42 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.0% (1189 shots before this season) — that's 8.0 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.0 expected goals). WAY over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 19.8%, worth PD +14.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- Sustained shooting at this level is historically rare — plan for the goals (and the points built on them) to cool off toward the baseline.
- His regular linemates run hot too (MacKinnon 14.5%, Necas 25.0%, Toews 16.7%, Makar 10.6%) — this reads as a line effect, not a finishing skill spike. When the line cools, his assists cool with it.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Canadiens | 73 | 18 | 10 | 28 | -1 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13:52 | 3 | 0 | 158 | 11.4% | 50.0% |
| 2017-18 | Canadiens | 66 | 12 | 9 | 21 | -11 | 20 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 16:29 | 3 | 0 | 164 | 7.3% | 36.7% |
| 2018-19 | Canadiens | 82 | 11 | 20 | 31 | 10 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:33 | 4 | 0 | 176 | 6.3% | 26.3% |
| 2019-20 | Canadiens | 70 | 13 | 14 | 27 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15:26 | 1 | 0 | 140 | 9.3% | 46.2% |
| 2020-21 | Canadiens | 47 | 7 | 6 | 13 | -2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:25 | 0 | 0 | 78 | 9.0% | 38.5% |
| 2021-22 | Canadiens | 58 | 13 | 16 | 29 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14:44 | 1 | 0 | 110 | 11.8% | 34.8% |
| 2021-22 | Avalanche | 16 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 16:26 | 1 | 0 | 45 | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Avalanche | 64 | 21 | 30 | 51 | 8 | 28 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 20:27 | 3 | 1 | 150 | 14.0% | 17.4% |
| 2023-24 | Avalanche | 45 | 16 | 18 | 34 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 18:28 | 2 | 1 | 103 | 15.5% | 27.3% |
| 2024-25 | Avalanche | 69 | 27 | 18 | 45 | 36 | 34 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 20:23 | 5 | 0 | 148 | 18.2% | 43.8% |
| 2025-26 | Avalanche | 70 | 21 | 27 | 48 | 32 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 18:29 | 0 | 0 | 153 | 13.7% | 16.7% |
| 2026-27 | Avalanche | 20 | 14 | 5 | 19 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 18:46 | 2 | 0 | 43 | 32.6% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Avalanche | 84 | 39 | 22 | 61 | — | 28 | — | 5 | — | 17:18 | — | — | 167 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 31 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Zach Hyman (2025-25) · Anthony Mantha (2025-25) · Steven Stamkos (2025-25) · Morgan Geekie (2025-25) · Pavel Dorofeyev (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ OTT | |||||
| P2 18:04 | PP | Goal | #? (Kadri, Hughes) → 1-2 | Kadri · Necas · Hughes Malinski | Amadio · Stützle Kleven · Matinpalo Ullmark (G) |
| Nov 10 · @ TOR | |||||
| P3 17:15 | EV | Goal | Lehkonen (Makar, Toews) → 5-3 | Lehkonen · MacKinnon · Necas Toews · Makar | Paul · Nylander · Tverberg Ekman-Larsson · Tanev Bobrovsky (G) |
| Oct 31 · vs CGY | |||||
| P2 05:48 | EV | Goal | #? (Makar, Toews) → 3-0 | MacKinnon · Necas Toews · Makar | Strome · Pospisil · Gridin Middleton · Whitecloud Sergeev (G) |
| P3 04:09 | EV | Goal | #? (Makar, Toews) → 5-2 | MacKinnon · Necas Toews · Makar | Frost · Sharangovich · Suniev Middleton · Whitecloud Sergeev (G) |
| Oct 28 · vs NJD | |||||
| P3 12:00 | EV | Assist | MacKinnon (Lehkonen, Malinski) → 4-1 | MacKinnon · Lehkonen · Necas Kulak · Malinski | Hischier · Meier · Evangelista Pesce · Hughes Allen (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Artturi over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon COL | 125 | 10 | |
| Martin Necas COL | 118 | 10 | |
| Devon Toews COL | 109 | 10 | |
| Cale Makar COL | 92 | 10 | |
| Sam Malinski COL | 50 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats