Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 51?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals25 × 3+75
- proj assists14 × 1+14
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots184 × 0.1+18.4
- PIM21 × 0.05+1.1
- ice time (min)1328 × 0.01+13.3
- total124 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242124 = 51/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 124 points is 51 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 13 of 13 for WSH.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +4.7
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 17.1% shooting on 35 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 10.2% (1186 shots before this season) — that's 2.4 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.6 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.8%, worth PD +4.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Wilson 6.9%, Chychrun 4.0%, Leonard 11.9%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | Blue Jackets | 72 | 16 | 13 | 29 | 6 | 45 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 14:05 | 5 | 0 | 127 | 12.6% | 46.7% |
| 2014-15 | Blue Jackets | 31 | 9 | 8 | 17 | -5 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 18:16 | 2 | 0 | 83 | 10.8% | 49.4% |
| 2015-16 | Blue Jackets | 82 | 30 | 19 | 49 | -15 | 77 | 9 | 14 | 1 | 16:25 | 3 | 0 | 225 | 13.3% | 53.1% |
| 2016-17 | Blue Jackets | 82 | 18 | 16 | 34 | 14 | 52 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16:04 | 4 | 0 | 211 | 8.5% | 50.0% |
| 2017-18 | Blue Jackets | 75 | 13 | 19 | 32 | 1 | 39 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 16:28 | 2 | 0 | 187 | 7.0% | 55.5% |
| 2018-19 | Blue Jackets | 77 | 16 | 22 | 38 | 6 | 42 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 17:04 | 3 | 0 | 170 | 9.4% | 54.1% |
| 2019-20 | Blue Jackets | 70 | 11 | 13 | 24 | -14 | 36 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 18:07 | 1 | 0 | 179 | 6.1% | 55.1% |
| 2020-21 | Blue Jackets | 41 | 8 | 9 | 17 | -9 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18:00 | 0 | 0 | 79 | 10.1% | 55.1% |
| 2021-22 | Blue Jackets | 59 | 23 | 21 | 44 | -11 | 22 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 20:28 | 3 | 0 | 160 | 14.4% | 53.6% |
| 2022-23 | Blue Jackets | 68 | 26 | 19 | 45 | -32 | 51 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 20:12 | 3 | 1 | 214 | 12.1% | 54.7% |
| 2023-24 | Blue Jackets | 58 | 22 | 13 | 35 | -8 | 28 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 20:06 | 1 | 0 | 155 | 14.2% | 54.3% |
| 2024-25 | Blue Jackets | 26 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 17:59 | 1 | 0 | 70 | 10.0% | 51.2% |
| 2025-26 | Blue Jackets | 67 | 13 | 25 | 38 | 3 | 44 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16:05 | 3 | 0 | 132 | 9.8% | 52.6% |
| 2026-27 | Capitals | 17 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:52 | 1 | 0 | 37 | 16.2% | 54.8% |
| 84-G proj | Capitals | 84 | 25 | 14 | 39 | — | 31 | — | 2 | — | 15:32 | — | — | 161 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 33 that is -4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Robby Fabbri (2024-24) · Alex Newhook (2025-25) · Kailer Yamamoto (2025-25) · Tyson Foerster (2025-25) · Anthony Duclair (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 · vs DAL | |||||
| P2 16:58 | EV | Goal | Jenner (Leonard, #?) → 2-5 | Ovechkin · Jenner · Beauvillier · Sourdif · Leonard Roy · Chychrun | Seguin · Hintz · Steel · Robertson · Hryckowian · Hyry Lindell · Lundkvist · Harley · Bichsel Oettinger (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ NSH | |||||
| P2 04:15 | EV | Goal | Jenner (Protas, Fehervary) → 2-1 | Jenner · Protas · Sourdif Roy · Fehervary | Marchessault · Forsberg · Kerfoot · Drury · Hoglander · Bourque Hague · Hunt Saros (G) |
| Oct 17 · vs NJD | |||||
| P2 11:14 | EV | Goal | Jenner (Desharnais, Fehervary) → 4-1 | Jenner · Beauvillier · Protas Desharnais · Fehervary | Meier · Bratt · Hughes · Gritsyuk Hamilton · Pesce · Siegenthaler · Kovacevic · Hughes Allen (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Boone over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Fehervary WSH | 85 | 10 | |
| Tom Wilson WSH | 61 | 9 | |
| Jakob Chychrun WSH | 54 | 10 | |
| Ryan Leonard WSH | 50 | 10 | |
| Matt Roy WSH | 50 | 7 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats