Charlie Coyle
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 55?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals16 × 3+48
- proj assists39 × 1+39
- PP points21 × 0.5+10.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots158 × 0.1+15.8
- PIM53 × 0.05+2.7
- ice time (min)1645 × 0.01+16.5
- total133 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242133 = 55/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 133 points is 55 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.2 SOG/game lately vs 1.5 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for CBJ.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 10.0% shooting on 30 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.0% (1172 shots before this season) — that's 0.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.4%, worth PD −1.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-13 | Wild | 37 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 3 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15:04 | 2 | 0 | 50 | 16.0% | 34.6% |
| 2013-14 | Wild | 70 | 12 | 18 | 30 | -7 | 33 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 17:05 | 2 | 0 | 135 | 8.9% | 41.9% |
| 2014-15 | Wild | 82 | 11 | 24 | 35 | 13 | 39 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 14:33 | 4 | 0 | 120 | 9.2% | 46.5% |
| 2015-16 | Wild | 82 | 21 | 21 | 42 | 1 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 17:18 | 4 | 0 | 140 | 15.0% | 45.4% |
| 2016-17 | Wild | 82 | 18 | 38 | 56 | 13 | 36 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 16:42 | 5 | 0 | 159 | 11.3% | 46.0% |
| 2017-18 | Wild | 66 | 11 | 26 | 37 | 8 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 16:32 | 1 | 0 | 117 | 9.4% | 52.2% |
| 2018-19 | Wild | 60 | 10 | 18 | 28 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 17:03 | 2 | 0 | 113 | 8.8% | 46.0% |
| 2018-19 | Bruins | 21 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:59 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 4.8% | 45.5% |
| 2019-20 | Bruins | 70 | 16 | 21 | 37 | 9 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16:47 | 3 | 0 | 145 | 11.0% | 46.6% |
| 2020-21 | Bruins | 51 | 6 | 10 | 16 | -4 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 16:17 | 2 | 0 | 79 | 7.6% | 48.3% |
| 2021-22 | Bruins | 82 | 16 | 28 | 44 | -6 | 32 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 17:24 | 5 | 2 | 131 | 12.2% | 49.1% |
| 2022-23 | Bruins | 82 | 16 | 29 | 45 | 29 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16:59 | 0 | 0 | 139 | 11.5% | 52.6% |
| 2023-24 | Bruins | 82 | 25 | 35 | 60 | -2 | 38 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 18:04 | 5 | 0 | 147 | 17.0% | 51.6% |
| 2024-25 | Bruins | 64 | 15 | 7 | 22 | -14 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 17:38 | 2 | 0 | 92 | 16.3% | 49.2% |
| 2024-25 | Avalanche | 19 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 14:48 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 8.7% | 47.4% |
| 2025-26 | Blue Jackets | 82 | 20 | 38 | 58 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 18:06 | 3 | 0 | 144 | 13.9% | 50.7% |
| 2026-27 | Blue Jackets | 17 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -1 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 19:46 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 9.1% | 55.2% |
| 84-G proj | Blue Jackets | 84 | 16 | 39 | 55 | — | 48 | — | 15 | — | 17:42 | — | — | 153 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 34 that is -5%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Pierre-Luc Dubois (2025-25) · Elias Pettersson (2025-25) · Vincent Trocheck (2025-25) · Mikael Granlund (2025-25) · William Karlsson (2024-24).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 · vs COL | |||||
| P1 00:28 | EV | Assist | #? (Coyle) → 1-0 | Coyle · Nichushkin Severson · Werenski | Lehkonen · MacKinnon · Necas Toews · Makar Wedgewood (G) |
| P2 12:03 | PP | Goal | #? (Johnson, Werenski) → 5-1 | Johnson · Knies · Fantilli Werenski | Kelly · O'Connor Kulak · Malinski Blackwood (G) |
| P2 04:19 | EV | Assist | #? (Olivier, Coyle) → 3-1 | Coyle · Olivier · Sillinger Fabbro | Lehkonen · MacKinnon · Necas Toews · Makar Wedgewood (G) |
| P3 11:21 | EV | Goal | #? (Sillinger, Severson) → 7-2 | Olivier · Sillinger Severson · Werenski | Kelly · O'Connor · Svechkov Burns · Malinski Blackwood (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ CAR | |||||
| P3 09:50 | PP | Assist | Johnson (Coyle, Werenski) → 2-3 | Coyle · Johnson · Knies · Fantilli Werenski | Jankowski · Martinook Slavin · Chatfield Kochetkov (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Charlie over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mathieu Olivier CBJ | 124 | 10 | |
| Zach Werenski CBJ | 123 | 10 | |
| Cole Sillinger CBJ | 99 | 10 | |
| Damon Severson CBJ | 80 | 10 | |
| Matthew Knies CBJ | 67 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats