Chris Kreider
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 39?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals15 × 3+45
- proj assists25 × 1+25
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots98 × 0.1+9.8
- PIM28 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1141 × 0.01+11.4
- total95 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24295 = 39/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 95 points is 39 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Minutes are shrinking: 11:46/game over the last 6, down 15% from 13:48 earlier in the season.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for MTL.
- Veteran card: age 35 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.4
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 14.3% shooting on 21 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 15.8% (1620 shots before this season) — that's 0.3 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.4%, worth PD −0.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-13 | Rangers | 23 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:07 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 10.5% | 0.0% |
| 2013-14 | Rangers | 66 | 17 | 20 | 37 | 14 | 72 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 15:44 | 0 | 0 | 136 | 12.5% | 42.1% |
| 2014-15 | Rangers | 80 | 21 | 25 | 46 | 24 | 88 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 15:43 | 5 | 0 | 180 | 11.7% | 42.9% |
| 2015-16 | Rangers | 79 | 21 | 22 | 43 | 10 | 58 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 15:57 | 3 | 0 | 158 | 13.3% | 83.3% |
| 2016-17 | Rangers | 75 | 28 | 25 | 53 | 6 | 58 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 17:00 | 4 | 1 | 186 | 15.0% | 55.6% |
| 2017-18 | Rangers | 58 | 16 | 21 | 37 | -2 | 44 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 15:37 | 0 | 0 | 137 | 11.7% | 41.7% |
| 2018-19 | Rangers | 79 | 28 | 24 | 52 | 4 | 57 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 17:24 | 2 | 0 | 201 | 13.9% | 37.5% |
| 2019-20 | Rangers | 63 | 24 | 21 | 45 | 13 | 58 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 17:15 | 5 | 0 | 156 | 15.4% | 43.1% |
| 2020-21 | Rangers | 50 | 20 | 10 | 30 | -1 | 34 | 11 | 14 | 0 | 17:24 | 4 | 0 | 102 | 19.6% | 40.0% |
| 2021-22 | Rangers | 81 | 52 | 25 | 77 | 19 | 24 | 26 | 35 | 3 | 18:44 | 11 | 0 | 258 | 20.2% | 48.9% |
| 2022-23 | Rangers | 79 | 36 | 18 | 54 | 21 | 26 | 8 | 17 | 4 | 18:25 | 3 | 1 | 229 | 15.7% | 45.2% |
| 2023-24 | Rangers | 82 | 39 | 36 | 75 | 19 | 26 | 18 | 29 | 2 | 18:47 | 7 | 1 | 246 | 15.9% | 36.5% |
| 2024-25 | Rangers | 68 | 22 | 8 | 30 | -5 | 24 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 16:45 | 6 | 0 | 152 | 14.5% | 39.7% |
| 2025-26 | Ducks | 75 | 22 | 28 | 50 | -4 | 34 | 8 | 17 | 0 | 17:03 | 3 | 1 | 139 | 15.8% | 35.7% |
| 2026-27 | Canadiens | 19 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:21 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 13.6% | 33.3% |
| 84-G proj | Canadiens | 84 | 15 | 25 | 40 | — | 34 | — | 10 | — | 14:13 | — | — | 118 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 35 that is -7%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kyle Palmieri (2025-25) · Boone Jenner (2025-25) · Jordan Eberle (2025-25) · Jonathan Marchessault (2025-25) · Joel Eriksson Ek (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · @ TOR | |||||
| P2 12:57 | EV | Goal | Kreider → 3-0 | Kreider · Suzuki · Caufield · Beck · Slafkovský Dobson · Xhekaj · Hutson · Engstrom | Blueger · Duhaime · MacEwen · McKenna Ekman-Larsson · Tanev · McCabe · Raddysh Bobrovsky (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs WPG | |||||
| P1 18:18 | EV | Assist | Anderson (Kreider, Guhle) → 2-0 | Kreider · Anderson · Evans · Caufield · Newhook · Slafkovský Carrier · Guhle | Niederreiter · Scheifele · Connor · Vilardi · Koepke · Björck Ferraro · Samberg · Pionk · Salomonsson Skinner (G) |
| Oct 31 · vs PIT | |||||
| P1 03:05 | EV | Assist | Anderson (Kreider) → 2-1 | Kreider · Anderson · Evans · Caufield · Newhook · Slafkovský Carrier · Dobson · Guhle · Hutson | Crosby · Rakell · Novak · Lapierre · Koivunen · Kuzmenko Karlsson · Girard · Stastney · Korczak Murashov (G) |
| P2 02:21 | EV | Goal | Kreider (Xhekaj, Anderson) → 4-2 | Kreider · Anderson · Evans · Kapanen · Beck · Xhekaj Xhekaj · Engstrom | Dewar · Lizotte · Robertson · Lapierre · Koivunen · Kuzmenko Letang · Girard · Korczak · Carlile Murashov (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ DAL | |||||
| P2 06:11 | EV | Assist | Newhook (Kreider, Dobson) → 4-1 | Kreider · Danault · Anderson · Evans · Texier · Newhook · Kapanen Carrier · Dobson · Guhle | Blackwell · Rantanen · Steel · Johnston · Hyry Myers · Lundkvist · Bichsel · Taylor Oettinger (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Chris over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Anderson MTL | 80 | 9 | |
| Jake Evans MTL | 56 | 10 | |
| Noah Dobson MTL | 53 | 10 | |
| Alex Newhook MTL | 49 | 10 | |
| Lane Hutson MTL | 49 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats