Cole Caufield
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 91?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals42 × 3+126
- proj assists30 × 1+30
- PP points19 × 0.5+9.5
- game-winning goals14 × 0.5+7
- OT goals9 × 0.25+2.3
- shots275 × 0.1+27.5
- PIM47 × 0.05+2.4
- ice time (min)1545 × 0.01+15.5
- total220 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242220 = 91/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 220 points is 91 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for MTL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +6.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 18.6% shooting on 59 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.1% (1188 shots before this season) — that's 2.7 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (8.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 16.4%, worth PD +6.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | Canadiens | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:58 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Canadiens | 67 | 23 | 20 | 43 | -24 | 10 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 16:41 | 3 | 2 | 188 | 12.2% | 50.0% |
| 2022-23 | Canadiens | 46 | 26 | 10 | 36 | -10 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 18:03 | 3 | 0 | 158 | 16.5% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Canadiens | 82 | 28 | 37 | 65 | -4 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 0 | 19:25 | 7 | 3 | 314 | 8.9% | 43.8% |
| 2024-25 | Canadiens | 82 | 37 | 33 | 70 | 9 | 14 | 10 | 17 | 0 | 18:05 | 8 | 1 | 240 | 15.4% | 40.0% |
| 2025-26 | Canadiens | 81 | 51 | 37 | 88 | 29 | 14 | 11 | 29 | 0 | 18:11 | 12 | 5 | 258 | 19.8% | 33.3% |
| 2026-27 | Canadiens | 19 | 12 | 6 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 18:23 | 3 | 2 | 63 | 19.0% | 66.7% |
| 84-G proj | Canadiens | 84 | 42 | 30 | 72 | — | 45 | — | 26 | — | 17:06 | — | — | 211 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Cole Caufield (2025-25) · Dylan Guenther (2025-25) · Tage Thompson (2025-25) · Alex Ovechkin (2025-25) · Auston Matthews (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ BOS | |||||
| P2 08:14 | EV | Goal | Caufield → 4-0 | Kreider · Anderson · Evans · Suzuki · Caufield · Slafkovský Matheson · Carrier · Guhle · Xhekaj | Pastrnak · Zacha · Eyssimont · Geekie · Peterka · Minten Lindholm · Zadorov · Borgen · McAvoy DiPietro (G) · Swayman (G) |
| Nov 10 · vs MIN | |||||
| P3 18:22 | EV | Assist | Suzuki (Caufield, Hutson) → 1-1 | Danault · Anderson · Evans · Suzuki · Texier · Caufield · Bolduc · Slafkovský Carrier · Guhle · Hutson | Coleman · McCarron · Ek Bogosian · Brodin Wallstedt (G) |
| Nov 7 · @ TOR | |||||
| P3 12:15 | PP | Assist | Bolduc (Hutson, Caufield) → 4-2 | Suzuki · Dach · Caufield · Newhook · Bolduc · Kapanen · Slafkovský Carrier · Guhle · Hutson | Paul · Roslovic · Matthews · Duhaime · Cowan Ekman-Larsson · Tanev · McCabe · Raddysh Bobrovsky (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs UTA | |||||
| P4 00:30 | EV | Goal | Caufield (Hutson, Suzuki) → 5-4 | Suzuki · Caufield Hutson | Keller · Guenther Sergachev Cossa (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs WPG | |||||
| P2 04:00 | PP | Goal | Caufield (Dobson, Slafkovský) → 3-0 | Kreider · Danault · Texier · Caufield · Newhook · Kapanen · Slafkovský Dobson · Hutson | Lowry · Iafallo · Koepke DeMelo · Ferraro · Samberg · Pionk Skinner (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Cole over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juraj Slafkovský MTL | 160 | 10 | |
| Nick Suzuki MTL | 121 | 7 | |
| Lane Hutson MTL | 108 | 10 | |
| Alexandre Carrier MTL | 59 | 10 | |
| Noah Dobson MTL | 57 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats