Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 31?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals12 × 3+36
- proj assists13 × 1+13
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots92 × 0.1+9.2
- PIM36 × 0.05+1.8
- ice time (min)1280 × 0.01+12.8
- total75 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24275 = 31/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 75 points is 31 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (21 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 0.7 SOG/game lately vs 1.4 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 17 of 17 for SJS.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.5
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 8.7% shooting on 23 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.7% (165 shots before this season) — that's 1.4 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.4 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.0%, worth PD −1.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Sharks | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:36 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Sharks | 33 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -4 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 15:52 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 12.5% | 33.3% |
| 2025-26 | Sharks | 81 | 21 | 25 | 46 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16:27 | 4 | 1 | 118 | 17.8% | 29.2% |
| 2026-27 | Sharks | 21 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15:14 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 8.7% | 37.2% |
| 84-G proj | Sharks | 84 | 12 | 13 | 25 | — | 39 | — | 1 | — | 15:13 | — | — | 115 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 24 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Phillip Di Giuseppe (2023-23) · Cedric Paquette (2020-20) · Liam Ohgren (2025-25) · Kyle Clifford (2020-20) · Gabe Perreault (2025-25).
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Collin over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Nurse SJS | 69 | 10 | |
| Jacob Trouba SJS | 58 | 10 | |
| Michael Kesselring SJS | 54 | 10 | |
| Sam Dickinson SJS | 42 | 10 | |
| Dmitry Orlov SJS | 38 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats