Conor Geekie
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 38?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals18 × 3+54
- proj assists13 × 1+13
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots112 × 0.1+11.2
- PIM9 × 0.05+0.5
- ice time (min)971 × 0.01+9.7
- total91 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24291 = 38/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 91 points is 38 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for TBL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 16.7% shooting on 24 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.3% (70 shots before this season) — that's 0.8 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.2 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 14.3%, worth PD +1.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Lightning | 52 | 8 | 6 | 14 | -4 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12:20 | 3 | 0 | 60 | 13.3% | 42.4% |
| 2025-26 | Lightning | 14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:54 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10.0% | 44.9% |
| 2026-27 | Lightning | 19 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:36 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 16.0% | 41.5% |
| 84-G proj | Lightning | 84 | 18 | 13 | 31 | — | 23 | — | 0 | — | 13:01 | — | — | 123 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 22 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · @ BUF | |||||
| P1 18:49 | EV | Assist | #? (Geekie, Guentzel) → 1-0 | Guentzel · Geekie Carlson · D'Astous | Quinn · Ostlund · Benson Timmins · Power Luukkonen (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ NSH | |||||
| P3 03:31 | EV | Goal | Geekie (Viel) → 4-3 | Sabourin · Viel · Geekie McDonagh · Moser | Marchessault · Forsberg · Wood Struble · Hunt Annunen (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs WPG | |||||
| P2 09:43 | EV | Goal | Geekie (James, Viel) → 2-1 | Viel · Geekie · James Carlson · D'Astous | Lowry · Iafallo · Rosén DeMelo · Ferraro Skinner (G) |
| Oct 24 · @ UTA | |||||
| P2 05:32 | EV | Goal | Geekie (Sabourin) → 4-2 | Viel · Sabourin · Geekie McDonagh · D'Astous · Cernak | Keller · Guenther · Cooley Weegar · Sergachev Vejmelka (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Conor over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Viel TBL | 75 | 9 | |
| Victor Hedman TBL | 49 | 10 | |
| J.J. Moser TBL | 44 | 10 | |
| Gage Goncalves TBL | 35 | 8 | |
| John Carlson TBL | 32 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats