Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 45?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals14 × 3+42
- proj assists27 × 1+27
- PP points9 × 0.5+4.5
- game-winning goals9 × 0.5+4.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots164 × 0.1+16.4
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)1310 × 0.01+13.1
- total108 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242108 = 45/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 108 points is 45 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 10.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 5.5/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: played 10 of 15 for WPG — missed 5 games (2026-10-15, 2026-10-17, 2026-10-20, 2026-10-22, …).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −3.5
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 8.1% shooting on 37 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.7% (748 shots before this season) — that's 2.1 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.1 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.6%, worth PD −3.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Devils | 82 | 17 | 25 | 42 | -25 | 28 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 16:32 | 2 | 0 | 154 | 11.0% | 35.4% |
| 2022-23 | Devils | 82 | 27 | 29 | 56 | 22 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 16:34 | 6 | 1 | 161 | 16.8% | 42.4% |
| 2023-24 | Devils | 82 | 20 | 13 | 33 | -26 | 29 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 17:13 | 2 | 0 | 134 | 14.9% | 44.9% |
| 2024-25 | Devils | 82 | 19 | 17 | 36 | 4 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 17:53 | 3 | 0 | 141 | 13.5% | 40.5% |
| 2025-26 | Devils | 82 | 20 | 22 | 42 | -2 | 33 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 18:14 | 1 | 0 | 158 | 12.7% | 38.9% |
| 2026-27 | Devils | 10 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:06 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Jets | 10 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 16:07 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 26.3% | 50.0% |
| 84-G proj | Jets | 84 | 14 | 27 | 41 | — | 17 | — | 8 | — | 15:26 | — | — | 153 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kent Johnson (2025-25) · Christian Dvorak (2025-25) · Jaden Schwartz (2025-25) · Ryan Strome (2025-25) · Trevor Moore (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ DAL | |||||
| P2 13:55 | EV | Goal | Mercer (Perfetti, Yager) → 3-3 | Scheifele · Connor · Vilardi · Mercer · Perfetti · Yager Morrissey · Pionk · Bauer | Perron · Faksa · Steel · Hryckowian · Hyry Myers · Lindell · Lundkvist · Harley Oettinger (G) |
| P2 19:51 | EV | Goal | Mercer (Perfetti, Samberg) → 5-3 | Lowry · Barron · Koepke · Mercer · Perfetti · Rosén Ferraro · Samberg · Pionk · Bauer | Perron · Seguin · Faksa · Kiviranta · Johnston Myers · Lindell · Lundkvist · Taylor Oettinger (G) |
| Nov 10 · vs NJD | |||||
| P1 07:54 | EV | Goal | Mercer (Perfetti) → 1-0 | Lowry · Iafallo · Mercer · Perfetti · Yager · Björck DeMelo · Morrissey · Bauer | Rodrigues · Bratt · Boqvist · Hughes · Gritsyuk · Lombardi Dillon · Hamilton · Siegenthaler · Chisholm Allen (G) |
| P3 11:58 | PP | Goal | Mercer (Iafallo, Björck) → 3-2 | Lowry · Iafallo · Barron · Koepke · Mercer · Yager · Björck DeMelo · Samberg · Pionk | Brown · Bratt · Glass · Hughes · Gritsyuk Dillon · Hamilton · Pesce · Hughes Allen (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs VAN | |||||
| P1 03:49 | PP | Assist | Iafallo (Fleury, Mercer) → 1-0 | Iafallo · Barron · Koepke · Mercer · Rosén · Yager · Björck DeMelo · Fleury · Ferraro | Karlsson · Rossi · Lekkerimaki · Ohgren · Sasson Oleksiak · Brisebois · Mancini Merilainen (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Dawson over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Perfetti WPG | 68 | 8 | |
| Mario Ferraro WPG | 47 | 8 | |
| Dylan Samberg WPG | 45 | 8 | |
| Neal Pionk WPG | 45 | 8 | |
| Brayden Yager WPG | 43 | 4 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats