Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 33?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals7 × 3+21
- proj assists7 × 1+7
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots97 × 0.1+9.7
- PIM27 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1617 × 0.01+16.2
- total55 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16655 = 33/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 55 points is 33 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 0.7 SOG/game lately vs 1.3 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for WPG.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 9.1% shooting on 22 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 4.9% (533 shots before this season) — that's 0.9 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.1 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 6.1%, worth PD +1.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Sharks | 61 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -15 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:53 | 0 | 0 | 63 | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Sharks | 56 | 1 | 16 | 17 | -6 | 22 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 22:26 | 0 | 0 | 58 | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Sharks | 63 | 2 | 12 | 14 | -5 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:00 | 1 | 0 | 49 | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Sharks | 72 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -31 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:36 | 0 | 0 | 66 | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Sharks | 78 | 3 | 18 | 21 | -38 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:52 | 0 | 0 | 124 | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Sharks | 78 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -25 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:24 | 1 | 0 | 79 | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Sharks | 82 | 7 | 16 | 23 | -1 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:02 | 0 | 0 | 94 | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Jets | 20 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:26 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Jets | 84 | 7 | 7 | 14 | — | 35 | — | 0 | — | 19:11 | — | — | 100 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 28 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Travis Dermott (2023-23) · Troy Stecher (2025-25) · Brett Pesce (2025-25) · Erik Gudbranson (2025-25) · Dmitry Kulikov (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · vs VAN | |||||
| P3 11:32 | EV | Goal | #? (Scheifele, DeMelo) → 6-1 | Scheifele · Connor · Vilardi DeMelo | Pettersson · Karlsson · Cotter Oleksiak · Hronek Merilainen (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Mario over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan DeMelo WPG | 97 | 10 | |
| Adam Lowry WPG | 58 | 10 | |
| Alex Iafallo WPG | 50 | 10 | |
| Morgan Barron WPG | 49 | 10 | |
| Kyle Connor WPG | 47 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats