Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 39?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals4 × 3+12
- proj assists24 × 1+24
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots75 × 0.1+7.5
- PIM97 × 0.05+4.9
- ice time (min)1701 × 0.01+17
- total65 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16665 = 39/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 65 points is 39 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Minutes are shrinking: 16:31/game over the last 6, down 17% from 19:59 earlier in the season.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for WPG.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.4
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 5.9% shooting on 17 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 3.5% (698 shots before this season) — that's 0.4 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (0.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 4.0%, worth PD +0.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | Sharks | 45 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 13:37 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Sharks | 25 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:54 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Sharks | 63 | 0 | 20 | 20 | -1 | 34 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 14:12 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Senators | 77 | 4 | 18 | 22 | -1 | 32 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 19:17 | 0 | 0 | 109 | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Senators | 49 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:55 | 0 | 0 | 64 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Jets | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:14 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Jets | 52 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:58 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Jets | 76 | 1 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18:30 | 0 | 0 | 78 | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Jets | 75 | 6 | 21 | 27 | 10 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19:34 | 1 | 0 | 93 | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Jets | 82 | 3 | 28 | 31 | 46 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:44 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Jets | 82 | 3 | 16 | 19 | 31 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:32 | 2 | 0 | 75 | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Jets | 82 | 3 | 16 | 19 | 7 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:27 | 0 | 0 | 75 | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Jets | 20 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:22 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Jets | 84 | 4 | 24 | 29 | — | 80 | — | 0 | — | 19:48 | — | — | 87 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 33 that is -4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jonas Brodin (2025-25) · Samuel Girard (2025-25) · Olli Maatta (2025-25) · Neal Pionk (2025-25) · Jared Spurgeon (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 · vs VAN | |||||
| P1 14:04 | EV | Assist | #? (Perfetti, DeMelo) → 3-1 | Perfetti · Yager DeMelo · Ferraro | Gallagher · Cotter · Sasson Hronek · Pettersson Merilainen (G) |
| P3 11:32 | EV | Assist | #? (Scheifele, DeMelo) → 6-1 | Scheifele · Connor · Vilardi DeMelo | Pettersson · Karlsson · Cotter Oleksiak · Hronek Merilainen (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ MTL | |||||
| P3 17:21 | EV | Assist | Bauer (Koepke, DeMelo) → 1-4 | Barron · Koepke DeMelo · Ferraro · Bauer | Kreider · Kapanen · Beck Xhekaj · Engstrom Fowler (G) |
| P3 18:03 | EV | Assist | #? (Bauer, DeMelo) → 2-4 | Koepke DeMelo · Bauer · Salomonsson | Danault · Texier · Bolduc Xhekaj · Hutson Fowler (G) |
| Oct 30 · @ FLA | |||||
| P3 08:46 | EV | Assist | Barron (Mercer, DeMelo) → 2-3 | Barron · Mercer · Perfetti DeMelo · Fleury | Verhaeghe · Reinhart · Vilmanis Kulikov · Gudas Schmid (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Dylan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Ferraro WPG | 97 | 10 | |
| Adam Lowry WPG | 56 | 9 | |
| Alex Iafallo WPG | 50 | 9 | |
| Kyle Connor WPG | 49 | 10 | |
| Morgan Barron WPG | 48 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats