Kyle Connor
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 100?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals51 × 3+153
- proj assists29 × 1+29
- PP points35 × 0.5+17.5
- game-winning goals9 × 0.5+4.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots358 × 0.1+35.8
- PIM9 × 0.05+0.5
- ice time (min)1808 × 0.01+18.1
- total258 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242258 = 100/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 258 points is 100 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 15.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 7.8/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for WPG.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +7.7
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 18.5% shooting on 81 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.8% (2368 shots before this season) — that's 3.0 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (12.0 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 16.9%, worth PD +7.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Jets | 20 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12:13 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 8.3% | 50.0% |
| 2017-18 | Jets | 76 | 31 | 26 | 57 | 8 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 16:54 | 7 | 3 | 192 | 16.2% | 28.6% |
| 2018-19 | Jets | 82 | 34 | 32 | 66 | -7 | 18 | 11 | 19 | 1 | 19:15 | 5 | 0 | 227 | 15.0% | 61.5% |
| 2019-20 | Jets | 71 | 38 | 35 | 73 | 4 | 34 | 9 | 17 | 1 | 21:05 | 7 | 1 | 239 | 15.9% | 15.4% |
| 2020-21 | Jets | 56 | 26 | 24 | 50 | -4 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 0 | 18:44 | 5 | 0 | 166 | 15.7% | 60.0% |
| 2021-22 | Jets | 79 | 47 | 46 | 93 | -3 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 3 | 21:47 | 9 | 1 | 317 | 14.8% | 14.3% |
| 2022-23 | Jets | 82 | 31 | 49 | 80 | -11 | 20 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 20:32 | 8 | 2 | 273 | 11.4% | 28.6% |
| 2023-24 | Jets | 65 | 34 | 27 | 61 | -6 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 19:43 | 10 | 3 | 221 | 15.4% | 28.6% |
| 2024-25 | Jets | 82 | 41 | 56 | 97 | 17 | 25 | 9 | 28 | 2 | 20:24 | 8 | 2 | 267 | 15.4% | 12.5% |
| 2025-26 | Jets | 82 | 39 | 53 | 92 | -2 | 16 | 5 | 19 | 2 | 21:30 | 5 | 2 | 274 | 14.2% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Jets | 20 | 16 | 8 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 21:22 | 2 | 0 | 85 | 18.8% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Jets | 84 | 51 | 29 | 79 | — | 23 | — | 25 | — | 19:04 | — | — | 260 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 29 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Auston Matthews (2025-25) · Alex Ovechkin (2025-25) · Tage Thompson (2025-25) · Cole Caufield (2025-25) · Alex DeBrincat (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ DAL | |||||
| P2 18:12 | PP | Assist | #? (Vilardi, Connor) → 4-3 | Connor · Vilardi · Perfetti Morrissey | Steel · Hyry Myers · Lindell Oettinger (G) |
| P3 01:00 | EV | Goal | #? (Vilardi, Scheifele) → 6-3 | Scheifele · Vilardi Morrissey · Samberg | Hintz · Robertson · Hyry Lindell · Harley DeSmith (G) · Oettinger (G) |
| P3 15:12 | EV | Assist | #? (Connor, Morrissey) → 7-3 | Scheifele · Connor Morrissey · Samberg | Benn · Rantanen · Johnston Myers · Taylor DeSmith (G) |
| Nov 10 · vs NJD | |||||
| P1 15:06 | PP | Goal | #? (Perfetti, Scheifele) → 2-0 | Scheifele · Vilardi · Perfetti Morrissey | Brown Dillon · Hughes Allen (G) |
| P3 19:02 | EV | Goal | #? → 4-2 | Scheifele · Björck Samberg · Pionk | Brown · Meier · Bratt · Hughes Hughes Allen (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Kyle over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Scheifele WPG | 170 | 10 | |
| Gabriel Vilardi WPG | 133 | 10 | |
| Neal Pionk WPG | 107 | 10 | |
| Dylan Samberg WPG | 78 | 10 | |
| Cole Perfetti WPG | 73 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats