Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 43?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals10 × 3+30
- proj assists32 × 1+32
- PP points18 × 0.5+9
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots155 × 0.1+15.5
- PIM18 × 0.05+0.9
- ice time (min)1532 × 0.01+15.3
- total103 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242103 = 43/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 103 points is 43 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.5 SOG/game lately vs 1.6 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Hot window: 10.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 4.4/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for WPG.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −8.4
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — a discount on real process. The underlying shot numbers say his trade value should climb.
- 2.9% shooting on 35 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 17.7% (644 shots before this season) — that's 5.2 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (6.2 expected goals). WAY under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.2%, worth PD −8.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- The shots are there and the finishing isn't — that gap usually closes. Production from his stat line is likely better than it looks from here.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Kings | 10 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12:51 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 15.8% | 53.3% |
| 2020-21 | Kings | 54 | 10 | 13 | 23 | -8 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 14:45 | 3 | 0 | 65 | 15.4% | 45.9% |
| 2021-22 | Kings | 25 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 13:31 | 1 | 0 | 41 | 12.2% | 45.8% |
| 2022-23 | Kings | 63 | 23 | 18 | 41 | 10 | 18 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 15:36 | 6 | 0 | 122 | 18.9% | 46.0% |
| 2023-24 | Jets | 47 | 22 | 14 | 36 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 14 | 0 | 17:00 | 5 | 0 | 117 | 18.8% | 45.8% |
| 2024-25 | Jets | 71 | 27 | 34 | 61 | 9 | 14 | 12 | 25 | 0 | 18:08 | 6 | 0 | 130 | 20.8% | 49.3% |
| 2025-26 | Jets | 82 | 30 | 39 | 69 | -12 | 24 | 13 | 24 | 0 | 18:44 | 2 | 0 | 150 | 20.0% | 42.0% |
| 2026-27 | Jets | 20 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -3 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 18:12 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 5.1% | 49.4% |
| 84-G proj | Jets | 84 | 10 | 32 | 42 | — | 28 | — | 22 | — | 17:03 | — | — | 151 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 27 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Filip Chytil (2024-24) · Boone Jenner (2025-25) · Trevor Zegras (2025-25) · Kyle Palmieri (2025-25) · Anton Lundell (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ DAL | |||||
| P2 18:12 | PP | Assist | #? (Vilardi, Connor) → 4-3 | Connor · Vilardi · Perfetti Morrissey | Steel · Hyry Myers · Lindell Oettinger (G) |
| P3 01:00 | EV | Assist | #? (Vilardi, Scheifele) → 6-3 | Scheifele · Vilardi Morrissey · Samberg | Hintz · Robertson · Hyry Lindell · Harley DeSmith (G) · Oettinger (G) |
| P3 15:12 | EV | Goal | #? (Connor, Morrissey) → 7-3 | Scheifele · Connor Morrissey · Samberg | Benn · Rantanen · Johnston Myers · Taylor DeSmith (G) |
| Nov 8 · vs TBL | |||||
| P3 19:58 | PP | Assist | #? (Perfetti, Vilardi) → 4-3 | Connor · Vilardi · Perfetti Pionk | Girgensons McDonagh · Moser Vasilevskiy (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs VAN | |||||
| P2 06:52 | EV | Assist | #? (Connor, Vilardi) → 4-1 | Scheifele · Connor · Vilardi Samberg | Gallagher · Cotter · Quillan Hronek · Pettersson Merilainen (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Gabriel over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Scheifele WPG | 153 | 10 | |
| Kyle Connor WPG | 133 | 10 | |
| Neal Pionk WPG | 88 | 10 | |
| Cole Perfetti WPG | 67 | 10 | |
| Dylan Samberg WPG | 62 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats