Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 71?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals20 × 3+60
- proj assists56 × 1+56
- PP points31 × 0.5+15.5
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots181 × 0.1+18.1
- PIM18 × 0.05+0.9
- ice time (min)1795 × 0.01+18
- total171 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242171 = 71/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 171 points is 71 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for WPG.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −6.3
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 9.8% shooting on 41 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 18.4% (1370 shots before this season) — that's 3.5 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (7.5 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 14.9%, worth PD −6.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-12 | Jets | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10:57 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20.0% | 35.3% |
| 2012-13 | Jets | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:32 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.0% | 71.4% |
| 2013-14 | Jets | 63 | 13 | 21 | 34 | 9 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16:21 | 2 | 1 | 100 | 13.0% | 42.2% |
| 2014-15 | Jets | 82 | 15 | 34 | 49 | 11 | 24 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 18:35 | 2 | 0 | 170 | 8.8% | 42.9% |
| 2015-16 | Jets | 71 | 29 | 32 | 61 | 16 | 48 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 18:33 | 3 | 1 | 194 | 14.9% | 44.2% |
| 2016-17 | Jets | 79 | 32 | 50 | 82 | 18 | 38 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 20:34 | 5 | 2 | 160 | 20.0% | 43.5% |
| 2017-18 | Jets | 60 | 23 | 37 | 60 | 19 | 18 | 8 | 16 | 2 | 20:41 | 3 | 0 | 125 | 18.4% | 51.2% |
| 2018-19 | Jets | 82 | 38 | 46 | 84 | 8 | 38 | 12 | 23 | 0 | 21:52 | 6 | 3 | 199 | 19.1% | 46.3% |
| 2019-20 | Jets | 71 | 29 | 44 | 73 | 2 | 45 | 10 | 20 | 0 | 21:48 | 6 | 2 | 170 | 17.1% | 46.9% |
| 2020-21 | Jets | 56 | 21 | 42 | 63 | -4 | 12 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 20:58 | 4 | 0 | 126 | 16.7% | 49.8% |
| 2021-22 | Jets | 67 | 29 | 41 | 70 | -17 | 23 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 21:08 | 3 | 2 | 159 | 18.2% | 50.7% |
| 2022-23 | Jets | 81 | 42 | 26 | 68 | -16 | 43 | 12 | 22 | 0 | 20:29 | 10 | 2 | 206 | 20.4% | 48.0% |
| 2023-24 | Jets | 74 | 25 | 47 | 72 | 19 | 57 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 20:11 | 4 | 1 | 154 | 16.2% | 48.1% |
| 2024-25 | Jets | 82 | 39 | 48 | 87 | 12 | 61 | 11 | 25 | 0 | 20:26 | 11 | 3 | 181 | 21.5% | 49.4% |
| 2025-26 | Jets | 82 | 36 | 67 | 103 | 0 | 43 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 21:30 | 6 | 1 | 175 | 20.6% | 46.7% |
| 2026-27 | Jets | 20 | 6 | 16 | 22 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 21:12 | 2 | 0 | 43 | 14.0% | 43.0% |
| 84-G proj | Jets | 84 | 20 | 56 | 76 | — | 28 | — | 25 | — | 18:58 | — | — | 167 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 33 that is -4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Evgeni Malkin (2025-25) · Robert Thomas (2025-25) · Jesper Bratt (2025-25) · Mitch Marner (2025-25) · Patrick Kane (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · @ DAL | |||||
| P2 07:03 | EV | Goal | #? → 2-2 | Connor · Vilardi Morrissey · Ferraro | Rantanen · Steel · Johnston Lundkvist · Harley Oettinger (G) |
| P2 18:12 | PP | Goal | #? (Vilardi, Connor) → 4-3 | Connor · Vilardi · Perfetti Morrissey | Steel · Hyry Myers · Lindell Oettinger (G) |
| P3 01:00 | EV | Assist | #? (Vilardi, Scheifele) → 6-3 | Scheifele · Vilardi Morrissey · Samberg | Hintz · Robertson · Hyry Lindell · Harley DeSmith (G) · Oettinger (G) |
| Nov 10 · vs NJD | |||||
| P1 15:06 | PP | Assist | #? (Perfetti, Scheifele) → 2-0 | Scheifele · Vilardi · Perfetti Morrissey | Brown Dillon · Hughes Allen (G) |
| Nov 8 · vs TBL | |||||
| P2 01:53 | PP | Assist | #? (Scheifele, Fleury) → 1-0 | Scheifele · Connor · Vilardi Fleury | Cirelli · Hagel Hedman · Cernak Vasilevskiy (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Mark over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor WPG | 170 | 10 | |
| Gabriel Vilardi WPG | 153 | 10 | |
| Neal Pionk WPG | 105 | 10 | |
| Cole Perfetti WPG | 101 | 10 | |
| Dylan Samberg WPG | 75 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats