Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 51?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals7 × 3+21
- proj assists27 × 1+27
- PP points24 × 0.5+12
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots80 × 0.1+8
- PIM32 × 0.05+1.6
- ice time (min)1443 × 0.01+14.4
- total84 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16684 = 51/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 84 points is 51 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (21 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Minutes are shrinking: 14:43/game over the last 6, down 19% from 18:04 earlier in the season.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 17 of 17 for SJS.
- Veteran card: age 35 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.8
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 10.0% shooting on 20 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 6.1% (1004 shots before this season) — that's 0.8 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.2 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 7.1%, worth PD +0.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-12 | Capitals | 60 | 3 | 16 | 19 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16:52 | 1 | 0 | 51 | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 2012-13 | Capitals | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2013-14 | Capitals | 54 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:36 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Capitals | 82 | 8 | 21 | 29 | 8 | 26 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16:02 | 3 | 0 | 90 | 8.9% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Capitals | 82 | 6 | 27 | 33 | 30 | 51 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 19:32 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Capitals | 82 | 10 | 21 | 31 | 10 | 22 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 23:08 | 2 | 0 | 125 | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Capitals | 82 | 3 | 26 | 29 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:38 | 0 | 0 | 101 | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Capitals | 69 | 4 | 23 | 27 | 5 | 36 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 22:10 | 2 | 1 | 105 | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Capitals | 51 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 16 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19:49 | 2 | 1 | 83 | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Capitals | 76 | 12 | 23 | 35 | 25 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 20:58 | 4 | 1 | 127 | 9.4% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Capitals | 43 | 3 | 16 | 19 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 22:43 | 2 | 2 | 77 | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Bruins | 23 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 22:13 | 0 | 0 | 47 | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Hurricanes | 82 | 6 | 20 | 26 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 17:19 | 1 | 0 | 129 | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Hurricanes | 76 | 6 | 22 | 28 | 16 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:00 | 2 | 0 | 117 | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Sharks | 82 | 3 | 34 | 37 | -28 | 48 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 21:12 | 0 | 0 | 91 | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Sharks | 21 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -11 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 17:11 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Sharks | 84 | 7 | 27 | 34 | — | 38 | — | 19 | — | 17:52 | — | — | 89 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 35 that is -7%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Tony DeAngelo (2025-25) · Tyson Barrie (2023-23) · Thomas Chabot (2025-25) · Seth Jones (2025-25) · Mattias Ekholm (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Date | Opp | Type | When | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | vs NYI | Assist | 12:12 · P2 · EV | Toffoli (Orlov, Pohlkamp) → 2-2 | Marchment · Toffoli · Misa Orlov · Pohlkamp | MacLean · Pageau · Cizikas Pelech · Stanley Sorokin (G) |
| Nov 6 | @ MIN | Assist | 12:11 · P2 · EV | Celebrini (Orlov, Smith) → 1-1 | Smith · Celebrini · Misa Orlov · Pohlkamp | Brink · Yurov · Shabanov Brodin · Hughes Wallstedt (G) |
| Nov 4 | @ LAK | Assist | 05:07 · P2 · PP | Celebrini (Orlov, Misa) → 1-3 | Sherwood · Celebrini · Misa Orlov · Pohlkamp | Laughton · Connors · Armia Doughty · Anderson Kuemper (G) |
| Nov 4 | @ LAK | Assist | 09:41 · P3 · PP | Stenberg (Orlov, Misa) → 2-6 | Stenberg · Sherwood · Graf · Misa Orlov | Moore · Haula Dumoulin · Edmundson Kuemper (G) |
| Oct 29 | vs VAN | Assist | 08:00 · P3 · PP | Smith (Orlov, Marchment) → 1-2 | Smith · Marchment · Stenberg · Celebrini Orlov | Boeser · Chytil Oleksiak · Mancini Meriläinen (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Dmitry over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Pohlkamp SJS | 68 | 5 | |
| Macklin Celebrini SJS | 64 | 10 | |
| Ivar Stenberg SJS | 61 | 10 | |
| Will Smith SJS | 53 | 10 | |
| Michael Misa SJS | 50 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats