Drew O'Connor
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 32?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals11 × 3+33
- proj assists16 × 1+16
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots113 × 0.1+11.3
- PIM76 × 0.05+3.8
- ice time (min)1315 × 0.01+13.2
- total77 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24277 = 32/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 77 points is 32 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.2 SOG/game lately vs 0.7 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for VAN.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 7.4% shooting on 27 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 10.6% (523 shots before this season) — that's 0.9 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.9 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 9.6%, worth PD −1.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | Penguins | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:57 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| 2021-22 | Penguins | 22 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:17 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 7.5% | 34.6% |
| 2022-23 | Penguins | 46 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:49 | 0 | 0 | 62 | 8.1% | 46.2% |
| 2023-24 | Penguins | 79 | 16 | 17 | 33 | 14 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15:45 | 2 | 0 | 160 | 10.0% | 46.7% |
| 2024-25 | Penguins | 53 | 6 | 10 | 16 | -14 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 14:37 | 1 | 0 | 82 | 7.3% | 41.3% |
| 2024-25 | Canucks | 31 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:12 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 11.4% | 43.5% |
| 2025-26 | Canucks | 82 | 17 | 12 | 29 | -12 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:35 | 2 | 0 | 136 | 12.5% | 48.6% |
| 2026-27 | Canucks | 20 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 7.4% | 34.5% |
| 84-G proj | Canucks | 84 | 11 | 16 | 27 | — | 63 | — | 0 | — | 15:28 | — | — | 127 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 28 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Nico Sturm (2025-25) · Joel Kiviranta (2025-25) · Sam Lafferty (2024-24) · Michael Rasmussen (2025-25) · Noel Acciari (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 · vs ANA | |||||
| P2 08:17 | EV | Assist | Karlsson (O'Connor) → 2-3 | Gallagher · Pettersson · Karlsson · Cotter · O'Connor · Sasson Oleksiak · Buium | Nesterenko · Colangelo · Malott · Myatovic · McQueen · Washe LaCombe · Luneau · Mintyukov · Warren Brossoit (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ SJS | |||||
| P1 13:21 | EV | Goal | O'Connor (Pettersson) → 1-0 | DeBrusk · Pettersson · Cotter · O'Connor · Bains · Sasson Oleksiak · Hronek · Pettersson · Willander | Toffoli · Marchment · Sherwood · Bystedt · Smith · Misa Orlov · Nurse · Kesselring · Allan Askarov (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Drew over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Hronek VAN | 59 | 10 | |
| Elias Pettersson VAN | 55 | 10 | |
| Zeev Buium VAN | 52 | 10 | |
| Linus Karlsson VAN | 50 | 9 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak VAN | 47 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats