Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 63?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals19 × 3+57
- proj assists50 × 1+50
- PP points21 × 0.5+10.5
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots168 × 0.1+16.8
- PIM21 × 0.05+1.1
- ice time (min)1462 × 0.01+14.6
- total153 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242153 = 63/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 153 points is 63 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.3 SOG/game lately vs 2.6 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 13 of 13 for WSH.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −3.3
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 9.4% shooting on 32 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 15.0% (1084 shots before this season) — that's 1.8 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.8 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.1%, worth PD −3.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Coyotes | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:41 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.0% | 40.3% |
| 2017-18 | Coyotes | 21 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12:57 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 13.3% | 43.0% |
| 2018-19 | Coyotes | 20 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 13:32 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 7.5% | 58.0% |
| 2018-19 | Blackhawks | 58 | 17 | 34 | 51 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 17:04 | 2 | 0 | 105 | 16.2% | 44.9% |
| 2019-20 | Blackhawks | 58 | 12 | 26 | 38 | 1 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 15:56 | 2 | 0 | 97 | 12.4% | 47.7% |
| 2020-21 | Blackhawks | 40 | 9 | 8 | 17 | -16 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 15:31 | 1 | 0 | 71 | 12.7% | 47.0% |
| 2021-22 | Blackhawks | 69 | 22 | 26 | 48 | -6 | 28 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 17:26 | 2 | 0 | 126 | 17.5% | 52.3% |
| 2022-23 | Capitals | 81 | 23 | 42 | 65 | -4 | 24 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 16:41 | 2 | 0 | 154 | 14.9% | 48.8% |
| 2023-24 | Capitals | 82 | 27 | 40 | 67 | -13 | 22 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 17:57 | 5 | 3 | 169 | 16.0% | 52.8% |
| 2024-25 | Capitals | 82 | 29 | 53 | 82 | 2 | 34 | 9 | 34 | 0 | 17:23 | 3 | 0 | 149 | 19.5% | 53.7% |
| 2025-26 | Capitals | 80 | 19 | 39 | 58 | 2 | 46 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 18:02 | 2 | 0 | 143 | 13.3% | 58.2% |
| 2026-27 | Capitals | 17 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 17:24 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 8.8% | 49.3% |
| 84-G proj | Capitals | 84 | 19 | 50 | 69 | — | 31 | — | 21 | — | 16:27 | — | — | 156 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 29 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Evgeni Malkin (2025-25) · Jesper Bratt (2025-25) · Patrick Kane (2025-25) · Mitch Marner (2025-25) · Robert Thomas (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 · @ OTT | |||||
| P4 01:14 | EV | Assist | Hutson (Ovechkin, #?) → 3-2 | Ovechkin · Tuch Chychrun · Hutson | Zetterlund · Pinto Sanderson · Zub Ersson (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs DAL | |||||
| P2 11:00 | PP | Assist | Kyrou (Strome, Hutson) → 1-4 | Ovechkin · Wilson · Tuch · Strome · Kyrou · Dubois · Leonard Ivany · Hutson | Perron · Faksa · Steel · Kiviranta · Hyry Myers · Lindell · Lundkvist · Bichsel Oettinger (G) |
| P2 19:30 | PP | Assist | Chychrun (Strome, Kyrou) → 3-5 | Ovechkin · Jenner · Wilson · Strome · Kyrou · Protas · Sourdif Roy · Chychrun · Fehervary | Benn · Faksa · Rantanen · Kiviranta · Johnston Lindell · Lundkvist · Harley Oettinger (G) |
| Oct 28 · vs PHI | |||||
| P1 01:50 | EV | Assist | Tuch (Strome, St. Ivany) → 1-0 | Strome · Kyrou · Tuch St. Ivany · Hutson | Cates · Michkov · Martone York · Seeler Woll (G) |
| P2 07:14 | PP | Assist | #? (Strome, Chychrun) → 2-1 | Ovechkin · Strome · Wilson Chychrun | Couturier · Acciari Sanheim · York Woll (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Dylan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Kyrou WSH | 117 | 10 | |
| Alex Tuch WSH | 109 | 10 | |
| Jakob Chychrun WSH | 98 | 10 | |
| Cole Hutson WSH | 65 | 10 | |
| Timothy Liljegren WSH | 46 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats