Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 45?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals18 × 3+54
- proj assists18 × 1+18
- PP points11 × 0.5+5.5
- game-winning goals6 × 0.5+3
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots151 × 0.1+15.1
- PIM22 × 0.05+1.1
- ice time (min)1266 × 0.01+12.7
- total109 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242109 = 45/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 109 points is 45 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (15 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.2 SOG/game lately vs 1.0 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Cold window: 1.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 5.0/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Availability: played 10 of 14 for PIT — missed 4 games (2026-10-16, 2026-10-17, 2026-10-22, 2026-10-24).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.6
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 11.1% shooting on 27 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.3% (460 shots before this season) — that's 0.3 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.0%, worth PD −0.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Blue Jackets | 62 | 7 | 7 | 14 | -27 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12:30 | 1 | 0 | 98 | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Blue Jackets | 30 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -6 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13:15 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 9.1% | 33.3% |
| 2023-24 | Blue Jackets | 53 | 16 | 13 | 29 | -3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 15:10 | 3 | 0 | 110 | 14.5% | 7.1% |
| 2024-25 | Blue Jackets | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | -6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 15:43 | 1 | 0 | 68 | 10.3% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Blue Jackets | 29 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:18 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Penguins | 43 | 18 | 18 | 36 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 15:37 | 4 | 0 | 104 | 17.3% | 33.3% |
| 2026-27 | Penguins | 15 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 15:05 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Penguins | 84 | 18 | 18 | 36 | — | 32 | — | 8 | — | 15:07 | — | — | 145 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Robby Fabbri (2024-24) · James Neal (2020-20) · Matt Calvert (2019-19) · Arthur Kaliyev (2023-23) · Kirby Dach (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
Lines shown for the 8 of 10 recent games inside the league's tracking archive.
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · @ LAK | |||||
| P1 19:31 | PP | Goal | #? (Koivunen, Malkin) → 3-1 | Malkin · Brazeau · Koivunen Letang | Armia · Laughton Dumoulin · Anderson Kuemper (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs UTA | |||||
| P3 19:35 | EV | Assist | Kindel (Malkin, Chinakhov) → 3-2 | Malkin · Chinakhov · Kindel Girard · Korczak | Stenlund · Keller · McBain Schmidt · Peeke Cossa (G) |
| Oct 19 · @ UTA | |||||
| P3 02:55 | EV | Goal | Chinakhov (Kuzmenko, Stastney) → 3-5 | Chinakhov · Kuzmenko · Kindel Karlsson · Stastney | Lee · Yamamoto · Hayton Weegar · Simashev Cossa (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Egor over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Kindel PIT | 89 | 10 | |
| Evgeni Malkin PIT | 68 | 9 | |
| Kris Letang PIT | 61 | 10 | |
| Tommy Novak PIT | 47 | 8 | |
| Samuel Girard PIT | 46 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats