Elias Pettersson
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 40?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals10 × 3+30
- proj assists10 × 1+10
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots76 × 0.1+7.6
- PIM42 × 0.05+2.1
- ice time (min)1559 × 0.01+15.6
- total67 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16667 = 40/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 67 points is 40 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Cold window: 0.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 3.3/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for VAN.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +1.8
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 16.7% shooting on 18 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 6.4% (65 shots before this season) — that's 1.8 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.2 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 8.8%, worth PD +1.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Hronek 4.5%, Pettersson 16.0%, Boeser 21.2%, O'Connor 7.4%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Canucks | 28 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:49 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Canucks | 70 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -16 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:59 | 0 | 0 | 46 | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Canucks | 20 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18:34 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Canucks | 84 | 10 | 10 | 20 | — | 45 | — | 0 | — | 18:45 | — | — | 87 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 22 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 · vs MIN | |||||
| P3 06:24 | EV | Assist | Sasson (Hronek, Pettersson) → 1-4 | Gallagher · Bains · Sasson Buium · Hronek · Pettersson | Trenin · Yurov · Shabanov Bogosian · Kiersted Pickard (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Elias over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Hronek VAN | 125 | 10 | |
| Elias Pettersson VAN | 63 | 10 | |
| Brock Boeser VAN | 56 | 10 | |
| Drew O'Connor VAN | 55 | 10 | |
| Jake DeBrusk VAN | 46 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats