Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 37?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals5 × 3+15
- proj assists11 × 1+11
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals5 × 0.25+1.3
- shots112 × 0.1+11.2
- PIM37 × 0.05+1.9
- ice time (min)1779 × 0.01+17.8
- total61 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16661 = 37/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 61 points is 37 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for FLA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.5
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 4.2% shooting on 24 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 5.7% (972 shots before this season) — that's 0.4 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.4 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 5.2%, worth PD −0.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Blackhawks | 38 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:49 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Blackhawks | 41 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -2 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 19:09 | 1 | 1 | 82 | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Blackhawks | 43 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -9 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:05 | 0 | 0 | 57 | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Panthers | 43 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 17 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 19:57 | 0 | 0 | 94 | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Panthers | 71 | 10 | 27 | 37 | 41 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:13 | 1 | 1 | 145 | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Panthers | 82 | 13 | 28 | 41 | 19 | 40 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 23:26 | 3 | 0 | 209 | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Panthers | 79 | 10 | 29 | 39 | 56 | 43 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 22:09 | 1 | 1 | 160 | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Panthers | 80 | 11 | 20 | 31 | 33 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22:57 | 1 | 1 | 195 | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Panthers | 80 | 2 | 26 | 28 | -5 | 51 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 22:38 | 1 | 0 | 112 | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Panthers | 19 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:15 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Panthers | 84 | 5 | 11 | 17 | — | 42 | — | 1 | — | 20:20 | — | — | 108 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Brett Pesce (2025-25) · Erik Gudbranson (2025-25) · Troy Stecher (2025-25) · Nicolas Hague (2025-25) · Connor Clifton (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs DET | |||||
| P2 19:42 | EV | Goal | #? (Verhaeghe) → 2-4 | Eller · Verhaeghe · Reinhart Ekblad | DeBrincat · Kasper · Finnie Seider · Wallinder Gibson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Gustav over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Ekblad FLA | 189 | 10 | |
| Lars Eller FLA | 70 | 10 | |
| Eetu Luostarinen FLA | 69 | 10 | |
| Anton Lundell FLA | 67 | 9 | |
| Sam Reinhart FLA | 61 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats