J.T. Miller
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 56?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals18 × 3+54
- proj assists36 × 1+36
- PP points8 × 0.5+4
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots160 × 0.1+16
- PIM130 × 0.05+6.5
- ice time (min)1595 × 0.01+16
- total135 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242135 = 56/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 135 points is 56 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.7 SOG/game lately vs 1.6 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for NYR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −2.8
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 10.5% shooting on 38 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 15.1% (1426 shots before this season) — that's 1.7 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.7 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.3%, worth PD −2.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-13 | Rangers | 26 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13:31 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 4.7% | 53.4% |
| 2013-14 | Rangers | 30 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11:27 | 0 | 0 | 46 | 6.5% | 51.0% |
| 2014-15 | Rangers | 58 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 12:42 | 3 | 0 | 92 | 10.9% | 45.4% |
| 2015-16 | Rangers | 82 | 22 | 21 | 43 | 10 | 46 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 15:02 | 5 | 1 | 135 | 16.3% | 43.3% |
| 2016-17 | Rangers | 82 | 22 | 34 | 56 | 17 | 21 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 16:22 | 6 | 1 | 132 | 16.7% | 44.0% |
| 2017-18 | Rangers | 63 | 13 | 27 | 40 | -1 | 28 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 16:40 | 4 | 2 | 98 | 13.3% | 54.3% |
| 2017-18 | Lightning | 19 | 10 | 8 | 18 | -3 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 18:11 | 1 | 0 | 45 | 22.2% | 54.3% |
| 2018-19 | Lightning | 75 | 13 | 34 | 47 | 8 | 30 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 14:40 | 4 | 0 | 108 | 12.0% | 49.4% |
| 2019-20 | Canucks | 69 | 27 | 45 | 72 | 11 | 47 | 9 | 25 | 0 | 20:06 | 3 | 1 | 165 | 16.4% | 59.2% |
| 2020-21 | Canucks | 53 | 15 | 31 | 46 | -7 | 43 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 20:58 | 4 | 2 | 106 | 14.2% | 53.0% |
| 2021-22 | Canucks | 80 | 32 | 67 | 99 | 15 | 47 | 8 | 38 | 0 | 21:05 | 6 | 3 | 206 | 15.5% | 54.1% |
| 2022-23 | Canucks | 81 | 32 | 50 | 82 | -7 | 60 | 11 | 30 | 5 | 20:41 | 3 | 1 | 223 | 14.3% | 55.0% |
| 2023-24 | Canucks | 81 | 37 | 66 | 103 | 32 | 58 | 10 | 40 | 2 | 19:29 | 9 | 2 | 194 | 19.1% | 56.3% |
| 2024-25 | Canucks | 40 | 9 | 26 | 35 | -4 | 37 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 17:57 | 2 | 1 | 82 | 11.0% | 58.6% |
| 2024-25 | Rangers | 32 | 13 | 22 | 35 | -2 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 18:31 | 0 | 0 | 55 | 23.6% | 57.6% |
| 2025-26 | Rangers | 68 | 17 | 36 | 53 | -30 | 33 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 20:09 | 5 | 3 | 144 | 11.8% | 61.5% |
| 2026-27 | Rangers | 20 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -1 | 31 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 18:59 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 10.5% | 56.8% |
| 84-G proj | Rangers | 84 | 18 | 36 | 54 | — | 96 | — | 14 | — | 17:33 | — | — | 154 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 33 that is -4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Pierre-Luc Dubois (2025-25) · Elias Pettersson (2025-25) · Mikael Granlund (2025-25) · William Karlsson (2024-24) · Vincent Trocheck (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · @ CGY | |||||
| P3 19:53 | EV | Assist | #? (Miller) → 3-1 | Zibanejad · Miller Gavrikov · Fox | Frost · Farabee · Coronato · Gridin Nemec Cooley (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs PHI | |||||
| P1 04:39 | EV | Assist | #? (Miller, Pettersson) → 1-0 | Miller · Kartye Pettersson · Schneider | Dvorak · Zegras · Michkov York · Bonk Woll (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs STL | |||||
| P2 01:49 | EV | Assist | #? (Kartye, Miller) → 1-0 | Miller · Kartye · Perreault Morrow | McMichael · Holloway · McTavish Fowler · Jiricek Hofer (G) |
| P3 17:59 | EV | Assist | #? (Miller, Fox) → 3-0 | Miller · Kartye Gavrikov · Fox | Thomas · Neighbours · Snuggerud Broberg · Barron Hofer (G) |
| Oct 26 · vs LAK | |||||
| P1 13:01 | EV | Goal | Miller (Kartye) → 1-2 | Miller · Kartye · Bjorkstrand Durzi · Smits · Pettersson | Moore · Ward · Byfield Dumoulin · Anderson Kuemper (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with J.T. over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tye Kartye NYR | 150 | 10 | |
| Adam Fox NYR | 102 | 10 | |
| Pavel Dorofeyev NYR | 78 | 10 | |
| Vladislav Gavrikov NYR | 73 | 10 | |
| Marcus Pettersson NYR | 62 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats