Jaccob Slavin
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 32?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals2 × 3+6
- proj assists16 × 1+16
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots134 × 0.1+13.4
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)1800 × 0.01+18
- total53 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16653 = 32/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 53 points is 32 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.0 SOG/game lately vs 2.1 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for CAR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −2.1
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 0.0% shooting on 32 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 4.5% (1166 shots before this season) — that's 1.4 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.4 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 2.9%, worth PD −2.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | Hurricanes | 63 | 2 | 18 | 20 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 20:59 | 0 | 0 | 84 | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Hurricanes | 82 | 5 | 29 | 34 | 23 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 23:26 | 0 | 0 | 99 | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Hurricanes | 82 | 8 | 22 | 30 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 22:35 | 1 | 1 | 154 | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Hurricanes | 82 | 8 | 23 | 31 | 0 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 23:02 | 1 | 0 | 146 | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Hurricanes | 68 | 6 | 30 | 36 | 30 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 23:24 | 3 | 1 | 145 | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Hurricanes | 52 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22:59 | 0 | 0 | 101 | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Hurricanes | 79 | 4 | 38 | 42 | 35 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 23:32 | 0 | 0 | 165 | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Hurricanes | 76 | 7 | 20 | 27 | 18 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:00 | 1 | 1 | 131 | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Hurricanes | 81 | 6 | 31 | 37 | 21 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:56 | 1 | 0 | 151 | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Hurricanes | 80 | 6 | 21 | 27 | 16 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:34 | 2 | 0 | 110 | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Hurricanes | 39 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:19 | 1 | 1 | 63 | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Hurricanes | 20 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:26 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Hurricanes | 84 | 2 | 16 | 18 | — | 17 | — | 0 | — | 20:33 | — | — | 122 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 32 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Brett Pesce (2025-25) · Erik Gudbranson (2025-25) · Jaccob Slavin (2025-25) · Connor Clifton (2025-25) · Troy Stecher (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 · vs CBJ | |||||
| P1 15:51 | EV | Assist | Martinook (Jarvis, Slavin) → 1-0 | Jankowski · Martinook · Carrier · Aho · Svechnikov · Jarvis Slavin · Chatfield · Walker · Miller | Coyle · Nichushkin · Olivier · Johnson · Knies · Fantilli Gudbranson · Fabbro · Christiansen · Mateychuk Greaves (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jaccob over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Chatfield CAR | 187 | 10 | |
| Sebastian Aho CAR | 80 | 10 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov CAR | 70 | 10 | |
| William Carrier CAR | 69 | 10 | |
| Jordan Martinook CAR | 59 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats